Kaizer Chiefs
vs
Amazulu
Premier Soccer League prediction
Our model says: Kaizer Chiefs 1–0 Amazulu
The model makes it 42% Kaizer Chiefs, 31% draw, 27% Amazulu — fair odds of 2.38, 3.23 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Kaizer Chiefs 1.28, Amazulu 0.92.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%, under 2.5: 62%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,028 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 21 October 2026. Kaizer Chiefs's rating is built from 38 South African Premier Soccer League matches and Amazulu's from 38, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 538 matches.
Key facts
- Kaizer Chiefs are 5th on 14 points from 8 games; Amazulu are 3rd on 19 points from 8 games — Premier Soccer League.
- Kaizer Chiefs are unbeaten in their last 5 games (1 won), most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Stellenbosch.
- Amazulu are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Durban City.
- Last 6 meetings: Kaizer Chiefs 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 16 May 2026, ended Amazulu 0–1 Kaizer Chiefs.
More South African Premier Soccer League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Kaizer Chiefs vs Amazulu
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Kaizer Chiefs at 42% here. Across 4,371 settled matches (as of 21 October 2026), 2,030 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Kaizer Chiefs vs Amazulu
Kaizer Chiefs
- D1-1Stellenbosch13 October 2026
- D0-0away to Golden Arrows20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Polokwane City12 September 2026
- W3-2Siwelele6 September 2026
- D2-2away to Richards Bay26 August 2026
Amazulu
- W2-1away to Durban City13 October 2026
- W1-0away to Polokwane City19 September 2026
- W1-0Marumo Gallants12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Richards Bay4 September 2026
- L2-5away to Mamelodi Sundowns26 August 2026
What these results say
- Kaizer Chiefs went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Kaizer Chiefs failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kaizer Chiefs scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Amazulu scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Amazulu won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier Soccer League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Kaizer Chiefs | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 14 |
| 3 | Amazulu | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Kaizer Chiefs vs Amazulu
- 16 May 2026Amazulu 0–1 Kaizer ChiefsPremier Soccer League
- 1 October 2025Kaizer Chiefs 1–1 AmazuluPremier Soccer League
- 4 February 2025Kaizer Chiefs 2–2 AmazuluPremier Soccer League
- 25 September 2024Amazulu 1–3 Kaizer ChiefsPremier Soccer League
- 12 May 2024Amazulu 1–1 Kaizer ChiefsPremier Soccer League
- 21 October 2023Kaizer Chiefs 0–1 AmazuluLeague Cup
Leading scorers: Kaizer Chiefs and Amazulu
Kaizer Chiefs
GoalsAssists
- M. Shabalala21
Amazulu
GoalsAssists
- T. Ngwenya81
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Kaizer Chiefs carry a model rating of 6.5 against 6.46 for Amazulu. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.28 goals for Kaizer Chiefs and 0.92 for Amazulu. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Kaizer Chiefs rate 0.70 in attack and 1.41 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Amazulu rate 0.69 and 1.52.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Amazulu, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Kaizer Chiefs a 0.5% chance of the title and Amazulu 1.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,110 correct results out of 4,378 settled predictions (48%), with 443 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Kaizer Chiefs the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Kaizer Chiefs against 0.92 for Amazulu. Kaizer Chiefs's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.41 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.52 for Amazulu.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Kaizer Chiefs at home · Amazulu away
League matches only, Premier Soccer League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier Soccer League matches this season: Kaizer Chiefs 8, Amazulu 8.
Kaizer Chiefs score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Amazulu have let in 2 there.
Amazulu score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Kaizer Chiefs have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Kaizer Chiefs
- at Chippa United28 Nov · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 43%
- at Milford FC5 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 30%
- vs TS Galaxy15 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 56%
- at Marumo Gallants19 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 48%
Amazulu
- vs Milford FC28 Nov · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 39%
- at Sekhukhune United5 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 34%
- at Chippa United15 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 41%
- vs Kruger United19 Dec · Premier Soccer Leaguewin 56%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.