Sarpsborg 08 FF
vs
Valerenga
Eliteserien prediction
The model makes it 57% Sarpsborg 08 FF, 19% draw, 24% Valerenga — fair odds of 1.75, 5.26 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.53, Valerenga 1.61.
Both teams to score: 74%. Over 2.5 goals: 78%, under 2.5: 22%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Sarpsborg 08 FF
- L1-2Sandefjord16 August 2026
- L1-2away to Viking8 August 2026
- D3-3away to Molde2 August 2026
- W1-0Ham-Kam26 July 2026
- D0-0away to Kristiansund BK18 July 2026
Valerenga
- D5-5away to Aalesund16 August 2026
- L1-2Bodo/Glimt8 August 2026
- L0-3Ham-Kam31 July 2026
- W3-2away to Brann26 July 2026
- W6-1Aalesund16 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 22 |
| 11 | Valerenga | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 28 | 34 | -6 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Sarpsborg 08 FF
No league goals recorded yet.
Valerenga
- L. Haren7 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sarpsborg 08 FF carry a model rating of 6.54 against 6.48 for Valerenga. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Sarpsborg 08 FF D-W-D-L-L; Valerenga W-W-L-L-D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.53 goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1.61 for Valerenga. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sarpsborg 08 FF rate 0.77 in attack and 1.44 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Valerenga rate 0.80 and 1.74.
That points to 78% for over two and a half goals and 74% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (8%), 3-1 (7%), 1-1 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 587 correct results out of 1234 settled predictions (48%), with 111 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.53 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF against 1.61 for Valerenga. Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.44 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/1.74 for Valerenga.