Rudes
vs
HNK Hajduk Split
HNL prediction
The model makes it 25% Rudes, 20% draw, 55% HNK Hajduk Split — fair odds of 4.00, 5.00 and 1.82. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (8%).
Expected goals: Rudes 1.62, HNK Hajduk Split 2.44.
Both teams to score: 73%. Over 2.5 goals: 77%, under 2.5: 23%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Rudes
- W4-1NK Lokomotiva Zagreb21 August 2026
- L0-4away to Dinamo Zagreb14 August 2026
- L1-6NK Osijek8 August 2026
- L1-2away to HNK Rijeka2 August 2026
HNK Hajduk Split
- W2-1away to HNK Gorica16 August 2026
- D2-2Istra 19619 August 2026
- L1-2away to NK Varazdin2 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Rudes | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3 |
| 6 | HNK Hajduk Split | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Rudes vs HNK Hajduk Split
- 27 April 2024HNK Hajduk Split 5–1 RudesHNL
- 17 February 2024Rudes 0–2 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
- 4 November 2023HNK Hajduk Split 1–0 RudesHNL
- 20 August 2023Rudes 0–2 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
- 14 May 2019Rudes 1–4 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
- 16 March 2019HNK Hajduk Split 3–0 RudesHNL
Leading scorers
Rudes
No league goals recorded yet.
HNK Hajduk Split
- R. Pukštas2 goals1 assists
- M. Livaja2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Rudes carry a model rating of 6.04 against 6.41 for HNK Hajduk Split. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Rudes L-L-L-W; HNK Hajduk Split L-D-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.62 goals for Rudes and 2.44 for HNK Hajduk Split. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Rudes rate 0.46 in attack and 2.32 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; HNK Hajduk Split rate 0.75 and 1.86.
That points to 77% for over two and a half goals and 73% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-2 (8%), 1-1 (7%), 1-3 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives HNK Hajduk Split the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Rudes against 2.44 for HNK Hajduk Split. Rudes's attack/defence rating is 0.46/2.32 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.86 for HNK Hajduk Split.