NK Varazdin
vs
Istra 1961
HNL prediction
The model makes it 60% NK Varazdin, 22% draw, 18% Istra 1961 — fair odds of 1.67, 4.55 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: NK Varazdin 2.04, Istra 1961 1.04.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
NK Varazdin
- W2-0HNK Rijeka16 August 2026
- W4-1away to NK Slaven Belupo9 August 2026
- W2-1HNK Hajduk Split2 August 2026
Istra 1961
- W3-0NK Slaven Belupo15 August 2026
- D2-2away to HNK Hajduk Split9 August 2026
- L2-3NK Lokomotiva Zagreb1 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | NK Varazdin | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 9 |
| 5 | Istra 1961 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: NK Varazdin vs Istra 1961
- 23 May 2026NK Varazdin 2–0 Istra 1961HNL
- 20 March 2026Istra 1961 2–1 NK VarazdinHNL
- 19 December 2025NK Varazdin 1–3 Istra 1961HNL
- 3 October 2025Istra 1961 1–0 NK VarazdinHNL
- 11 May 2025Istra 1961 0–0 NK VarazdinHNL
- 8 March 2025NK Varazdin 0–0 Istra 1961HNL
Leading scorers
NK Varazdin
- I. Canjuga2 goals1 assists
- L. Mamic2 goals
Istra 1961
- E. Frederiksen3 goals1 assists
- H. Jaganjac2 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
NK Varazdin carry a model rating of 6.67 against 6.49 for Istra 1961. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): NK Varazdin W-W-W; Istra 1961 L-D-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.04 goals for NK Varazdin and 1.04 for Istra 1961. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
NK Varazdin rate 0.81 in attack and 1.16 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Istra 1961 rate 0.64 and 1.33.
That points to 59% for over two and a half goals and 57% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives NK Varazdin the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.04 expected goals for NK Varazdin against 1.04 for Istra 1961. NK Varazdin's attack/defence rating is 0.81/1.16 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.33 for Istra 1961.