NK Slaven Belupo
vs
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
HNL prediction
The model makes it 46% NK Slaven Belupo, 22% draw, 32% NK Lokomotiva Zagreb — fair odds of 2.17, 4.55 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: NK Slaven Belupo 1.99, NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1.66.
Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
NK Slaven Belupo
- L0-3away to Istra 196115 August 2026
- L1-4NK Varazdin9 August 2026
- L0-2away to Dinamo Zagreb31 July 2026
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- L1-4away to Rudes21 August 2026
- L0-1away to NK Osijek15 August 2026
- W3-1HNK Gorica8 August 2026
- W3-2away to Istra 19611 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | NK Slaven Belupo | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 0 |
| 4 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: NK Slaven Belupo vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- 21 April 2026NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2–1 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
- 10 March 2026NK Slaven Belupo 1–1 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebCup
- 13 February 2026NK Slaven Belupo 2–0 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
- 16 January 2026NK Slaven Belupo 2–4 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebFriendlies Clubs
- 8 November 2025NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1–1 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
- 23 August 2025NK Slaven Belupo 1–2 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
NK Slaven Belupo carry a model rating of 6.14 against 6.2 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): NK Slaven Belupo L-L-L; NK Lokomotiva Zagreb W-W-L-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.99 goals for NK Slaven Belupo and 1.66 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
NK Slaven Belupo rate 0.50 in attack and 2.08 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; NK Lokomotiva Zagreb rate 0.57 and 2.11.
That points to 71% for over two and a half goals and 70% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives NK Slaven Belupo the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.99 expected goals for NK Slaven Belupo against 1.66 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb. NK Slaven Belupo's attack/defence rating is 0.5/2.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/2.11 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb.