25 July 2026, 00:15 UTC

Platense vs Union Santa Fe Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Estadio Ciudad de Vicente Lopez, Florida
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Platense 2-2 Union Santa Fe.

Before kick-off the model made it 27% Platense, 23% draw, 50% Union Santa Fe — fair odds of 3.70, 4.35 and 2.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Union Santa Fe at 50% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽T. Fagioli (OG)
24'
37'
B. Cuello
L. Heredia
45+1'
G. Mainero
45+1'
47'
J. Luduena
59'
🔁B. Cuelloout: V. J. Cerrudo
59'
🔁E. Giacconeout: S. Vera
M. Mendia
63'
🔁I. Gomezout: P. Ferreira
64'
🔁L. Herediaout: N. Lopez
64'
72'
⚽J. Luduena
79'
🔁V. J. Cerrudoout: B. Pitton
79'
⚽C. Tarragona (pen)
🔁J. Gautoout: B. Merlini
80'
🔁M. Barriosout: G. Lencina
80'
⚽B. Merlini
87'
🔁P. Ferreiraout: F. Bussio
90+2'
90+6'
🔁L. Menossiout: M. Peresutti

Match stats — Platense vs Union Santa Fe

57%Possession43%
15Shots10
5On target4
6Corners2
0.65xG1.3

Goals against chances

Platense2 from 0.65 xGmore than the chances were worth
Union Santa Fe2 from 1.30 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Platense 4-2-3-1
  • 30Juan CozzaniG
  • 4Agustín LagosD
  • 13Ignacio VazquezD
  • 34Mateo MendiaD
  • 3Tomás Ariel SilvaD
  • 5Ivan GómezM
  • 24Martín BarriosM
  • 7Guido MaineroM
  • 43Nicolás RetamarM
  • 33Juan GautoM
  • 23Leonardo HerediaF
Substitutes
  • 26Pablo FerreiraM
  • 11Nico LópezF
  • 18Bautista MerliniF
  • 99Gonzalo LencinaF
  • 17Felipe BussioM
  • 22Nicolás SumavilG
  • 32Santiago QuirosD
  • 6Eugenio RaggioD
  • 25Juan Ignacio SaboridoD
Coach: Walter Zunino
Union Santa Fe 4-4-2
  • 21Matías MansillaG
  • 35Lautaro VargasD
  • 44Tomás FagioliD
  • 26Juan Pablo LudueñaD
  • 18Lucas AyalaD
  • 20Julián PalaciosM
  • 5Lucas MenossiM
  • 8Emilio GiacconeM
  • 22Brahian CuelloM
  • 31Misael AguirreF
  • 25Cristian TarragonaF
Substitutes
  • 38Valentín CerrudoF
  • 29Santino VeraM
  • 12Bruno PittónD
  • 34Mateo PeresuttiM
  • 40Lucas MeuliG
  • 32Nazareno FazziD
  • 36Mateo AimarD
  • 33Ignacio IslaD
  • 46Santiago GrellaM
Coach: Leonardo Madelon

Liga Profesional Argentina table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Platense9234914-59
8Union Santa Fe94141614+213

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Platense vs Union Santa Fe

  • 25 July 2026Platense 2–2 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 22 January 2026Union Santa Fe 0–0 PlatenseLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 2 December 2024Platense 1–0 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 20 February 2024Union Santa Fe 0–0 PlatenseCopa de la Liga Profesional
  • 25 September 2023Platense 1–0 Union Santa FeCopa de la Liga Profesional
  • 15 July 2023Union Santa Fe 0–0 PlatenseLiga Profesional Argentina

Leading scorers: Platense and Union Santa Fe

Platense

No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.

Union Santa Fe

  • C. Tarragona14 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.