Richards Bay
vs
Sekhukhune United
Premier Soccer League prediction
Our model says: Richards Bay 1–2 Sekhukhune United
The model makes it 33% Richards Bay, 28% draw, 39% Sekhukhune United — fair odds of 3.03, 3.57 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Richards Bay 1.38, Sekhukhune United 1.58.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Richards Bay vs Sekhukhune United
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Richards Bay wins, grey are draws, red are Sekhukhune United wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sekhukhune United at 39% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Richards Bay vs Sekhukhune United
Richards Bay
- L1-5away to Milford FC13 September 2026
- L1-2Amazulu4 September 2026
- D2-2Kaizer Chiefs26 August 2026
- D1-1away to Durban City15 August 2026
- D1-1away to Chippa United11 August 2026
Sekhukhune United
- D1-1away to Stellenbosch11 September 2026
- D0-0TS Galaxy5 September 2026
- L0-2away to Orlando Pirates25 August 2026
- W2-0Polokwane City15 August 2026
- L0-2away to Kaizer Chiefs12 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier Soccer League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Richards Bay | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 3 |
| 6 | Sekhukhune United | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Richards Bay and Sekhukhune United
Richards Bay
- N. Xulu3 goals
Sekhukhune United
No player in Premier Soccer League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Richards Bay carry a model rating of 6.17 against 6.38 for Sekhukhune United. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.38 goals for Richards Bay and 1.58 for Sekhukhune United. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Richards Bay rate 0.61 in attack and 2.48 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sekhukhune United rate 0.53 and 1.39.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Richards Bay a 0% chance of the title and Sekhukhune United 0.2%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sekhukhune United the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Richards Bay against 1.58 for Sekhukhune United. Richards Bay's attack/defence rating is 0.61/2.48 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.39 for Sekhukhune United.