RB Bragantino
vs
Santos
Serie A prediction
Our model says: RB Bragantino 2–1 Santos
The model makes it 42% RB Bragantino, 27% draw, 31% Santos — fair odds of 2.38, 3.70 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: RB Bragantino 1.54, Santos 1.26.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 1,986 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 19 October 2026. RB Bragantino's rating is built from 69 Brazilian Serie A matches and Santos's from 69, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,068 matches.
Key facts
- RB Bragantino are 10th on 41 points from 31 games; Santos are 8th on 45 points from 31 games — Serie A.
- RB Bragantino are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Remo.
- Santos have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Fluminense.
- Last 6 meetings: Santos 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 10 May 2026, ended Santos 2–0 RB Bragantino.
More Brazilian Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: RB Bragantino vs Santos
Has the model earned this number?
It puts RB Bragantino at 42% here. Across 4,271 settled matches (as of 19 October 2026), 1,987 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into RB Bragantino vs Santos
RB Bragantino
- D1-1away to Remo18 October 2026
- W4-2Cruzeiro13 October 2026
- D1-1Mirassol7 October 2026
- L0-1away to Atletico Mineiro3 October 2026
- L1-2away to Flamengo20 September 2026
Santos
- W2-1away to Fluminense18 October 2026
- L1-2away to Atletico Mineiro11 October 2026
- D2-2Flamengo8 October 2026
- W2-1away to Sao Paulo2 October 2026
- W2-1away to Remo19 September 2026
What these results say
- RB Bragantino conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- RB Bragantino failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- RB Bragantino scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Santos scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Santos conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Santos had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | RB Bragantino | 31 | 11 | 8 | 12 | 39 | 36 | +3 | 41 |
| 8 | Santos | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 48 | 46 | +2 | 45 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: RB Bragantino vs Santos
- 10 May 2026Santos 2–0 RB BragantinoSerie A
- 25 January 2026Santos 0–0 RB BragantinoPaulista - A1
- 28 September 2025RB Bragantino 2–2 SantosSerie A
- 27 April 2025Santos 1–2 RB BragantinoSerie A
- 2 March 2025Santos 2–0 RB BragantinoPaulista - A1
- 27 March 2024Santos 3–1 RB BragantinoPaulista - A1
Leading scorers: RB Bragantino and Santos
RB Bragantino
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 39 league goals as a side.
Santos
GoalsAssists
- Gabriel Barbosa153
- Neymar83
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
RB Bragantino carry a model rating of 6.72 against 6.79 for Santos. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.54 goals for RB Bragantino and 1.26 for Santos. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
RB Bragantino rate 0.84 in attack and 1.10 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Santos rate 1.02 and 1.16.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Santos, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,058 correct results out of 4,279 settled predictions (48%), with 431 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives RB Bragantino the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.54 expected goals for RB Bragantino against 1.26 for Santos. RB Bragantino's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.02/1.16 for Santos.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
RB Bragantino at home · Santos away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: RB Bragantino 31, Santos 31.
RB Bragantino score most often in the 46–60 minute window (8 goals); Santos have let in 5 there.
Santos score most often in the 46–60 minute window (15 goals); RB Bragantino have let in 11 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
RB Bragantino
- at Vitoria18 Nov · Serie Awin 33%
- vs Vasco da Gama22 Nov · Serie Awin 46%
- at Internacional29 Nov · Serie Awin 31%
Santos
- at Coritiba18 Nov · Serie Awin 40%
- vs Gremio22 Nov · Serie Awin 56%
- at Vitoria29 Nov · Serie Awin 37%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.