Radnik Bijeljina
vs
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Premijer Liga prediction
Our model says: Radnik Bijeljina 1–2 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
The model makes it 34% Radnik Bijeljina, 29% draw, 37% Zeljeznicar Sarajevo — fair odds of 2.94, 3.45 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Radnik Bijeljina 1.34, Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 1.47.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Radnik Bijeljina and Zeljeznicar Sarajevo are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- Radnik Bijeljina are bottom on 4 points from 8 games; Zeljeznicar Sarajevo are 4th on 12 points from 8 games — Premijer Liga.
- Radnik Bijeljina have not won in their last 5, most recently a 4-4 draw away to BSK Banja Luka.
- Zeljeznicar Sarajevo are unbeaten in 4, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Čelik.
- Last 6 meetings: Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 11 April 2026, ended Radnik Bijeljina 0–3 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo.
All Bosnian Premier League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Radnik Bijeljina vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Zeljeznicar Sarajevo at 37% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 2,372 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Radnik Bijeljina vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Radnik Bijeljina
- D4-4away to BSK Banja Luka19 September 2026
- L2-3away to Čelik11 September 2026
- L1-2Sloga Doboj5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Velež2 September 2026
- D2-2Borac Banja Luka30 August 2026
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
- D1-1Čelik18 September 2026
- D1-1away to Sloga Doboj13 September 2026
- W2-0FK Sarajevo9 September 2026
- W3-1Velež6 September 2026
- L0-2away to Borac Banja Luka2 September 2026
What these results say
- Radnik Bijeljina did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Radnik Bijeljina scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Radnik Bijeljina conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Zeljeznicar Sarajevo scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Zeljeznicar Sarajevo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Zeljeznicar Sarajevo had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premijer Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Radnik Bijeljina | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 4 |
| 4 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Radnik Bijeljina vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
- 11 April 2026Radnik Bijeljina 0–3 Zeljeznicar SarajevoPremijer Liga
- 13 December 2025Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 0–0 Radnik BijeljinaPremijer Liga
- 5 October 2025Radnik Bijeljina 1–0 Zeljeznicar SarajevoPremijer Liga
- 27 July 2025Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 1–1 Radnik BijeljinaPremijer Liga
- 31 May 2025Radnik Bijeljina 1–2 Zeljeznicar SarajevoPremijer Liga
- 16 March 2025Radnik Bijeljina 2–3 Zeljeznicar SarajevoPremijer Liga
The two sides
Radnik Bijeljina carry a model rating of 5.99 against 6.19 for Zeljeznicar Sarajevo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.34 goals for Radnik Bijeljina and 1.47 for Zeljeznicar Sarajevo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Radnik Bijeljina rate 0.46 in attack and 2.59 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Zeljeznicar Sarajevo rate 0.47 and 1.79.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Radnik Bijeljina a 0% chance of the title and Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Zeljeznicar Sarajevo the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Radnik Bijeljina against 1.47 for Zeljeznicar Sarajevo. Radnik Bijeljina's attack/defence rating is 0.46/2.59 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/1.79 for Zeljeznicar Sarajevo.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Radnik Bijeljina at home · Zeljeznicar Sarajevo away
League matches only, Premijer Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premijer Liga matches this season: Radnik Bijeljina 8, Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 8.
Radnik Bijeljina score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Zeljeznicar Sarajevo have let in 1 there.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Radnik Bijeljina have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Radnik Bijeljina
- vs FK Sarajevo17 Oct · Premijer Ligawin 29%
- at Zrinjski24 Oct · Premijer Ligawin 14%
- vs Siroki Brijeg31 Oct · Premijer Ligawin 38%
- at Borac Banja Luka7 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 12%
- vs Velež21 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 39%
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
- at BSK Banja Luka17 Oct · Premijer Ligawin 34%
- at FK Sarajevo24 Oct · Premijer Ligawin 25%
- vs Zrinjski31 Oct · Premijer Ligawin 29%
- at Siroki Brijeg7 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 34%
- vs Borac Banja Luka21 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 26%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.