Čelik
vs
FK Sarajevo
Premijer Liga prediction
Our model says: Čelik 0–1 FK Sarajevo
The model makes it 35% Čelik, 29% draw, 36% FK Sarajevo — fair odds of 2.86, 3.45 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Čelik 1.32, FK Sarajevo 1.37.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Čelik and FK Sarajevo are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- Čelik are 7th on 8 points from 8 games; FK Sarajevo are 3rd on 13 points from 8 games — Premijer Liga.
- Čelik have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Zeljeznicar Sarajevo.
- FK Sarajevo have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Sloga Doboj.
- Last 6 meetings: FK Sarajevo 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 11 February 2026, ended Čelik 0–1 FK Sarajevo.
All Bosnian Premier League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Čelik vs FK Sarajevo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FK Sarajevo at 36% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 2,372 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Čelik vs FK Sarajevo
Čelik
- D1-1away to Zeljeznicar Sarajevo18 September 2026
- W3-2Radnik Bijeljina11 September 2026
- L2-3away to BSK Banja Luka5 September 2026
- D0-0away to Sloga Doboj1 September 2026
- W3-0Velež28 August 2026
FK Sarajevo
- W2-0Sloga Doboj20 September 2026
- L0-1away to Velež13 September 2026
- L0-2away to Zeljeznicar Sarajevo9 September 2026
- W1-0Borac Banja Luka6 September 2026
- W2-1away to Siroki Brijeg2 September 2026
What these results say
- Čelik scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for FK Sarajevo had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premijer Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Čelik | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 8 |
| 3 | FK Sarajevo | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Čelik vs FK Sarajevo
- 11 February 2026Čelik 0–1 FK SarajevoCup
- 19 October 2022Čelik 1–1 FK SarajevoCup
- 18 October 2019FK Sarajevo 2–0 ČelikPremijer Liga
- 28 July 2019Čelik 0–0 FK SarajevoPremijer Liga
- 3 May 2019FK Sarajevo 5–0 ČelikPremijer Liga
- 1 December 2018FK Sarajevo 3–1 ČelikPremijer Liga
The two sides
Čelik carry a model rating of 6.16 against 6.33 for FK Sarajevo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.32 goals for Čelik and 1.37 for FK Sarajevo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Čelik rate 0.54 in attack and 2.18 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FK Sarajevo rate 0.52 and 1.50.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Čelik a 0.1% chance of the title and FK Sarajevo 1.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FK Sarajevo the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Čelik against 1.37 for FK Sarajevo. Čelik's attack/defence rating is 0.54/2.18 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/1.5 for FK Sarajevo.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Čelik at home · FK Sarajevo away
League matches only, Premijer Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premijer Liga matches this season: Čelik 8, FK Sarajevo 8.
Čelik score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); FK Sarajevo have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Čelik
- vs Zrinjski17 Oct · Premijer Ligawin 28%
- at Siroki Brijeg24 Oct · Premijer Ligawin 33%
- vs Borac Banja Luka31 Oct · Premijer Ligawin 26%
- at Velež7 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 33%
- vs Sloga Doboj21 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 49%
FK Sarajevo
- at Radnik Bijeljina17 Oct · Premijer Ligawin 42%
- vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo24 Oct · Premijer Ligawin 45%
- at BSK Banja Luka31 Oct · Premijer Ligawin 40%
- at Zrinjski7 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 24%
- vs Siroki Brijeg21 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 51%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.