QPR
vs
Swansea
Championship prediction
Our model says: QPR 0–1 Swansea
The model makes it 33% QPR, 30% draw, 37% Swansea — fair odds of 3.03, 3.33 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: QPR 1.11, Swansea 1.19.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: Low.
Edge to Swansea: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- QPR are 8th on 14 points from 9 games; Swansea are top on 23 points from 10 games — Championship.
- QPR have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to West Ham.
- Swansea are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Millwall.
- Last 6 meetings: Swansea 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 21 April 2026, ended QPR 1–2 Swansea.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: QPR vs Swansea
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Swansea at 37% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into QPR vs Swansea
QPR
- D1-1away to West Ham9 October 2026
- D2-2Preston19 September 2026
- D1-1away to West Brom12 September 2026
- D0-0away to Charlton9 September 2026
- L0-1Middlesbrough5 September 2026
Swansea
- W1-0away to Millwall13 October 2026
- W2-1Norwich10 October 2026
- W2-1away to Lincoln19 September 2026
- W3-1Burnley12 September 2026
- L1-3away to Southampton8 September 2026
What these results say
- QPR did not win any of these 5 matches.
- QPR conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for QPR had two goals or fewer.
- Swansea scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Swansea won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Swansea conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | QPR | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 14 |
| 1 | Swansea | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
QPR
Chance to finish in the top four · 8% today
Swansea
Chance to finish in the top four · 57% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: QPR vs Swansea
- 21 April 2026QPR 1–2 SwanseaChampionship
- 22 October 2025Swansea 0–1 QPRChampionship
- 21 April 2025QPR 1–2 SwanseaChampionship
- 26 December 2024Swansea 3–0 QPRChampionship
- 1 April 2024Swansea 0–1 QPRChampionship
- 19 September 2023QPR 1–1 SwanseaChampionship
Leading scorers: QPR and Swansea
QPR
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Swansea
GoalsAssists
- A. Idah41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
QPR carry a model rating of 6.53 against 6.69 for Swansea. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.11 goals for QPR and 1.19 for Swansea. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
QPR rate 0.69 in attack and 1.30 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Swansea rate 0.77 and 1.07.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives QPR a 1% chance of the title and Swansea 18.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Swansea the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.11 expected goals for QPR against 1.19 for Swansea. QPR's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.07 for Swansea.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
QPR at home · Swansea away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
QPRSwansea
QPR are 5th after 9 Championship matches (between 1st and 5th so far); Swansea are 1st after 10 (between 1st and 6th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: QPR 9, Swansea 10.
QPR score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Swansea have let in 2 there.
Swansea score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); QPR have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
QPR
- at Southampton31 Oct · Championshipwin 20%
- vs Burnley3 Nov · Championshipwin 34%
- vs Lincoln7 Nov · Championshipwin 40%
Swansea
- vs Blackburn31 Oct · Championshipwin 48%
- at Portsmouth3 Nov · Championshipwin 39%
- at Birmingham7 Nov · Championshipwin 31%
- vs West Brom21 Nov · Championshipwin 46%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.