Pumas UNAM
vs
Leon
Liga MX prediction
The model makes it 38% Pumas UNAM, 30% draw, 32% Leon — fair odds of 2.63, 3.33 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Pumas UNAM 1.15, Leon 1.04.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 37%, under 2.5: 63%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Pumas UNAM
- D0-0Club Queretaro16 August 2026
- W5-1away to FC Juarez1 August 2026
- W2-1away to Toluca22 July 2026
- L0-3CF Pachuca18 July 2026
Leon
- W2-0Monterrey22 August 2026
- W2-1away to Necaxa18 August 2026
- W1-0CF Pachuca2 August 2026
- L0-1away to Club Tijuana25 July 2026
- L2-3Atlas18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Pumas UNAM | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 7 |
| 7 | Leon | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Pumas UNAM
- Juninho3 goals
Leon
- D. Arcila2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Pumas UNAM carry a model rating of 6.56 against 6.59 for Leon. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Pumas UNAM L-W-W-D; Leon L-L-W-W-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.15 goals for Pumas UNAM and 1.04 for Leon. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Pumas UNAM rate 0.49 in attack and 1.00 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Leon rate 0.74 and 1.24.
That points to 37% for over two and a half goals and 45% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (12%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Leon, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Pumas UNAM the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Pumas UNAM against 1.04 for Leon. Pumas UNAM's attack/defence rating is 0.49/1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.24 for Leon.