Club America
vs
Club Tijuana
Liga MX prediction
The model makes it 49% Club America, 21% draw, 30% Club Tijuana — fair odds of 2.04, 4.76 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Club America 2.27, Club Tijuana 1.76.
Both teams to score: 75%. Over 2.5 goals: 77%, under 2.5: 23%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Club America
- W2-1away to FC Juarez22 August 2026
- W3-0Atletico San Luis16 August 2026
- W3-0Santos Laguna2 August 2026
- D1-1away to Atlante FC25 July 2026
- W1-0away to Club Queretaro19 July 2026
Club Tijuana
- L2-5away to Guadalajara Chivas22 August 2026
- W2-1Cruz Azul17 August 2026
- D0-0away to Atletico San Luis1 August 2026
- W1-0Leon25 July 2026
- W3-1Tigres UANL17 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 13 |
| 5 | Club Tijuana | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Club America carry a model rating of 6.65 against 6.66 for Club Tijuana. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Club America W-D-W-W-W; Club Tijuana W-W-D-W-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.27 goals for Club America and 1.76 for Club Tijuana. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Club America rate 0.94 in attack and 1.43 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Club Tijuana rate 0.88 and 1.28.
That points to 77% for over two and a half goals and 75% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (8%), 1-1 (7%), 2-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Club America the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.27 expected goals for Club America against 1.76 for Club Tijuana. Club America's attack/defence rating is 0.94/1.43 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.88/1.28 for Club Tijuana.