Preston
vs
West Brom
Championship prediction
Our model says: Preston 0–1 West Brom
The model makes it 30% Preston, 31% draw, 39% West Brom — fair odds of 3.33, 3.23 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Preston 0.99, West Brom 1.23.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%, under 2.5: 62%.
Model confidence: Low.
Edge to West Brom: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Preston are bottom on 4 points from 10 games; West Brom are 4th on 17 points from 10 games — Championship.
- Preston have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-4 defeat away to Birmingham.
- West Brom have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Wrexham.
- Last 6 meetings: West Brom 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 18 April 2026, ended Preston 0–2 West Brom.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Preston vs West Brom
Has the model earned this number?
It puts West Brom at 39% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Preston vs West Brom
Preston
- L0-4away to Birmingham13 October 2026
- L0-1Millwall10 October 2026
- D2-2away to QPR19 September 2026
- L0-1Lincoln12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Watford8 September 2026
West Brom
- W2-1away to Wrexham13 October 2026
- L0-1Birmingham10 October 2026
- L0-1away to Wolves20 September 2026
- D1-1QPR12 September 2026
- W1-0away to Derby9 September 2026
What these results say
- Preston did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Preston conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- West Brom conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for West Brom had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Preston | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 4 |
| 4 | West Brom | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Preston
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 80% today
West Brom
Chance to finish in the top four · 7% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Preston vs West Brom
- 18 April 2026Preston 0–2 West BromChampionship
- 18 October 2025West Brom 2–1 PrestonChampionship
- 1 January 2025West Brom 3–1 PrestonChampionship
- 30 November 2024Preston 1–1 West BromChampionship
- 4 May 2024West Brom 3–0 PrestonChampionship
- 30 September 2023Preston 0–4 West BromChampionship
Leading scorers: Preston and West Brom
Preston
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
West Brom
GoalsAssists
- J. Morgan33
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Preston carry a model rating of 6.32 against 6.56 for West Brom. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.99 goals for Preston and 1.23 for West Brom. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Preston rate 0.58 in attack and 1.69 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; West Brom rate 0.61 and 1.13.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Preston a 0% chance of the title and West Brom 0.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives West Brom the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Preston against 1.23 for West Brom. Preston's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.69 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.13 for West Brom.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Preston at home · West Brom away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
PrestonWest Brom
Preston are 24th after 10 Championship matches (between 21st and 24th so far); West Brom are 3rd after 10 (between 1st and 7th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Preston 10, West Brom 10.
Preston score most often in the 0–15 minute window (3 goals); West Brom have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Preston
- at Stoke City31 Oct · Championshipwin 22%
- vs Sheffield Utd3 Nov · Championshipwin 29%
- vs Southampton7 Nov · Championshipwin 20%
- at West Ham21 Nov · Championshipwin 12%
West Brom
- at West Ham31 Oct · Championshipwin 20%
- vs Southampton3 Nov · Championshipwin 30%
- vs Millwall7 Nov · Championshipwin 36%
- at Swansea21 Nov · Championshipwin 23%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.