Portsmouth
vs
Millwall
Championship prediction
Our model says: Portsmouth 0–1 Millwall
The model makes it 34% Portsmouth, 29% draw, 37% Millwall — fair odds of 2.94, 3.45 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Portsmouth 1.20, Millwall 1.25.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Portsmouth and Millwall are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Portsmouth are 20th on 8 points from 8 games; Millwall are 10th on 14 points from 10 games — Championship.
- Portsmouth are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Southampton.
- Millwall have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Swansea.
- Last 6 meetings: Millwall 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 21 February 2026, ended Millwall 1–3 Portsmouth.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Portsmouth vs Millwall
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Millwall at 37% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Portsmouth vs Millwall
Portsmouth
- L0-1away to Southampton11 October 2026
- D2-2Blackburn19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Charlton12 September 2026
- W2-0Cardiff5 September 2026
- L0-2Derby1 September 2026
Millwall
- L0-1Swansea13 October 2026
- W1-0away to Preston10 October 2026
- D2-2West Ham19 September 2026
- D2-2away to Middlesbrough15 September 2026
- L1-3away to Blackburn12 September 2026
What these results say
- Portsmouth failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Portsmouth had two goals or fewer.
- Millwall failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Millwall scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Millwall conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Portsmouth | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Millwall | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Portsmouth
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 15% today
Millwall
Chance to finish in the top four · 15% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Portsmouth vs Millwall
- 21 February 2026Millwall 1–3 PortsmouthChampionship
- 22 November 2025Portsmouth 3–1 MillwallChampionship
- 5 April 2025Millwall 2–1 PortsmouthChampionship
- 28 January 2025Portsmouth 0–1 MillwallChampionship
- 13 August 2024Portsmouth 0–1 MillwallLeague Cup
- 10 August 2021Millwall 2–1 PortsmouthLeague Cup
Leading scorers: Portsmouth and Millwall
Portsmouth
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Millwall
GoalsAssists
- L. Dykes41
- C. Neghli32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Portsmouth carry a model rating of 6.48 against 6.62 for Millwall. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.20 goals for Portsmouth and 1.25 for Millwall. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Portsmouth rate 0.65 in attack and 1.37 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Millwall rate 0.77 and 1.22.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Portsmouth a 0.1% chance of the title and Millwall 1.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Millwall the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Portsmouth against 1.25 for Millwall. Portsmouth's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.37 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.22 for Millwall.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Portsmouth at home · Millwall away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
PortsmouthMillwall
Portsmouth are 19th after 8 Championship matches (between 9th and 22nd so far); Millwall are 10th after 10 (between 1st and 11th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Portsmouth 8, Millwall 10.
Portsmouth score most often in the 0–15 minute window (3 goals); Millwall have let in 0 there.
Millwall score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Portsmouth have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Portsmouth
- at Burnley31 Oct · Championshipwin 21%
- vs Swansea3 Nov · Championshipwin 31%
Millwall
- vs Derby31 Oct · Championshipwin 48%
- at Birmingham3 Nov · Championshipwin 29%
- at West Brom7 Nov · Championshipwin 33%
- vs QPR21 Nov · Championshipwin 46%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.