Napoli
vs
Bodo/Glimt
UEFA Champions League prediction
Our model says: Napoli 2–1 Bodo/Glimt
The model makes it 50% Napoli, 26% draw, 24% Bodo/Glimt — fair odds of 2.00, 3.85 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Napoli 2.17, Bodo/Glimt 1.17.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Key facts
- Napoli are 27th on 0 points from 1 game; Bodo/Glimt are bottom on 0 points from 1 game — UEFA Champions League.
- Napoli have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Fiorentina.
- Bodo/Glimt have won 2 of their last 4, most recently a 0-5 defeat away to Bayern München.
All Champions League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Napoli vs Bodo/Glimt
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Napoli at 50% here. Across 3,056 settled matches (as of 6 October 2026), 707 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Napoli vs Bodo/Glimt
Napoli
- L0-1Arsenal9 September 2026
Bodo/Glimt
- L0-5away to Bayern München10 September 2026
- W3-0NEC Nijmegen25 August 2026
- W3-1away to NEC Nijmegen19 August 2026
- D3-3away to Union St. Gilloise4 August 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 4 matches for Bodo/Glimt had three goals or more.
- Bodo/Glimt scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Bodo/Glimt conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Napoli | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 36 | Bodo/Glimt | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Napoli carry a model rating of 7.11 against 6.97 for Bodo/Glimt. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.17 goals for Napoli and 1.17 for Bodo/Glimt. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Napoli rate 1.25 in attack and 0.74 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bodo/Glimt rate 1.14 and 0.90.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,441 correct results out of 3,061 settled predictions (47%), with 302 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Napoli the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Napoli against 1.17 for Bodo/Glimt. Napoli's attack/defence rating is 1.25/0.74 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.14/0.9 for Bodo/Glimt.
Season stats
Napoli at home · Bodo/Glimt away
League matches only, this season — Napoli in the Serie A, Bodo/Glimt in the Eliteserien. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Napoli 5 in the Serie A, Bodo/Glimt 21 in the Eliteserien.
Bodo/Glimt score most often in the 16–30 minute window (13 goals); Napoli have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Napoli
- vs AS Roma24 Oct · Serie Awin 29%
- at Monza28 Oct · Serie Awin 50%
Bodo/Glimt
- vs Valerenga24 Oct · Eliteserienwin 66%
- vs Viking30 Oct · Eliteserienwin 43%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.