Liverpool
vs
Villarreal
UEFA Champions League prediction
Our model says: Liverpool 2–1 Villarreal
The model makes it 49% Liverpool, 24% draw, 27% Villarreal — fair odds of 2.04, 4.17 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Liverpool 2.47, Villarreal 1.50.
Both teams to score: 72%. Over 2.5 goals: 76%, under 2.5: 24%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Liverpool are 13th on 3 points from 1 game; Villarreal are 21st on 0 points from 1 game — UEFA Champions League.
- Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 5 (2 won), most recently a 1-0 win away to Bournemouth.
- Villarreal have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Levante.
- Last 4 meetings: Liverpool 3 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 3 May 2022, ended Villarreal 2–3 Liverpool.
All Champions League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Liverpool vs Villarreal
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Liverpool at 49% here. Across 3,056 settled matches (as of 6 October 2026), 1,425 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Liverpool vs Villarreal
Liverpool
- W2-1Atletico Madrid9 September 2026
Villarreal
- L2-3away to Borussia Dortmund8 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Liverpool | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 21 | Villarreal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Liverpool vs Villarreal
- 3 May 2022Villarreal 2–3 LiverpoolUEFA Champions League
- 27 April 2022Liverpool 2–0 VillarrealUEFA Champions League
- 5 May 2016Liverpool 3–0 VillarrealUEFA Europa League
- 28 April 2016Villarreal 1–0 LiverpoolUEFA Europa League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Liverpool carry a model rating of 7.1 against 7.03 for Villarreal. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.47 goals for Liverpool and 1.50 for Villarreal. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Liverpool rate 1.32 in attack and 0.80 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Villarreal rate 1.36 and 0.97.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,441 correct results out of 3,061 settled predictions (47%), with 302 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Liverpool the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.47 expected goals for Liverpool against 1.50 for Villarreal. Liverpool's attack/defence rating is 1.32/0.8 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.36/0.97 for Villarreal.
Season stats
Liverpool at home · Villarreal away
League matches only, this season — Liverpool in the Premier League, Villarreal in the La Liga. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Liverpool 5 in the Premier League, Villarreal 7 in the La Liga.
Liverpool score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Villarreal have let in 1 there.
Villarreal score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Liverpool have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Liverpool
- vs Brighton25 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 39%
- vs Arsenal1 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 30%
Villarreal
- at Valencia25 Oct · La Ligawin 42%
- vs Espanyol1 Nov · La Ligawin 53%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.