MSV Duisburg
vs
FC Viktoria Köln
3. Liga prediction
Our model says: MSV Duisburg 1–0 FC Viktoria Köln
The model makes it 44% MSV Duisburg, 29% draw, 27% FC Viktoria Köln — fair odds of 2.27, 3.45 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: MSV Duisburg 1.68, FC Viktoria Köln 1.08.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- MSV Duisburg are top on 18 points from 7 games; FC Viktoria Köln are 2nd on 15 points from 7 games — 3. Liga.
- MSV Duisburg have won 4 of their last 5, most recently a 4-1 win away to SV Wehen.
- FC Viktoria Köln are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 3-0 win at home to FC Ingolstadt 04.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 1 win each, 4 draws; the most recent, 16 May 2026, ended MSV Duisburg 1–1 FC Viktoria Köln.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: MSV Duisburg vs FC Viktoria Köln
Has the model earned this number?
It puts MSV Duisburg at 44% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into MSV Duisburg vs FC Viktoria Köln
MSV Duisburg
- W4-1away to SV Wehen20 September 2026
- W2-1Havelse15 September 2026
- L1-2away to Fortuna Düsseldorf12 September 2026
- W2-1away to SSV Jahn Regensburg5 September 2026
- W3-0Würzburger Kickers29 August 2026
FC Viktoria Köln
- W3-0FC Ingolstadt 0419 September 2026
- W3-1away to SV Meppen15 September 2026
- W4-0Hansa Rostock11 September 2026
- L0-1away to Rot-Weiß Essen5 September 2026
- W4-1Preußen Münster30 August 2026
What these results say
- MSV Duisburg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for MSV Duisburg had three goals or more.
- MSV Duisburg won 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Viktoria Köln won 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Viktoria Köln scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for FC Viktoria Köln had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MSV Duisburg | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 18 |
| 2 | FC Viktoria Köln | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 9 | +10 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: MSV Duisburg vs FC Viktoria Köln
- 16 May 2026MSV Duisburg 1–1 FC Viktoria Köln3. Liga
- 21 December 2025FC Viktoria Köln 0–0 MSV Duisburg3. Liga
- 17 February 2024MSV Duisburg 1–0 FC Viktoria Koln3. Liga
- 23 September 2023FC Viktoria Koln 2–0 MSV Duisburg3. Liga
- 17 April 2023FC Viktoria Koln 2–2 MSV Duisburg3. Liga
- 22 October 2022MSV Duisburg 1–1 FC Viktoria Koln3. Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
MSV Duisburg carry a model rating of 6.43 against 6.35 for FC Viktoria Köln. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.68 goals for MSV Duisburg and 1.08 for FC Viktoria Köln. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
MSV Duisburg rate 0.65 in attack and 1.52 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Viktoria Köln rate 0.59 and 1.59.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives MSV Duisburg a 32.2% chance of the title and FC Viktoria Köln 13.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives MSV Duisburg the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.68 expected goals for MSV Duisburg against 1.08 for FC Viktoria Köln. MSV Duisburg's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.52 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.59 for FC Viktoria Köln.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
MSV Duisburg at home · FC Viktoria Köln away
League matches only, 3. Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 3. Liga matches this season: MSV Duisburg 7, FC Viktoria Köln 7.
MSV Duisburg score most often in the 61–75 minute window (7 goals); FC Viktoria Köln have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
MSV Duisburg
- at FC Ingolstadt 0424 Oct · 3. Ligawin 37%
- vs Stuttgart II31 Oct · 3. Ligawin 55%
- at Preußen Münster7 Nov · 3. Ligawin 33%
FC Viktoria Köln
- vs Verl24 Oct · 3. Ligawin 42%
- at Hoffenheim II31 Oct · 3. Ligawin 35%
- vs FC Saarbrücken7 Nov · 3. Ligawin 45%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.