Fortuna Köln
vs
Stuttgart II
3. Liga prediction
Our model says: Fortuna Köln 2–1 Stuttgart II
The model makes it 45% Fortuna Köln, 28% draw, 27% Stuttgart II — fair odds of 2.22, 3.57 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Fortuna Köln 1.74, Stuttgart II 1.09.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Fortuna Köln are 12th on 9 points from 7 games; Stuttgart II are 15th on 7 points from 7 games — 3. Liga.
- Fortuna Köln have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 3-1 win away to Havelse.
- Stuttgart II are without a win in 3, most recently a 3-3 draw at home to SSV Jahn Regensburg.
- Last 4 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 12 March 2016, ended Fortuna Koln 1–3 Stuttgart II.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Fortuna Köln vs Stuttgart II
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fortuna Köln at 45% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Fortuna Köln vs Stuttgart II
Fortuna Köln
- W3-1away to Havelse25 September 2026
- L0-2SV Wehen16 September 2026
- D2-2away to Hoffenheim II13 September 2026
- D0-0Fortuna Düsseldorf6 September 2026
- W2-1away to Verl29 August 2026
Stuttgart II
- D3-3SSV Jahn Regensburg19 September 2026
- L2-3away to Hansa Rostock16 September 2026
- L1-2Preußen Münster13 September 2026
- W2-1away to Würzburger Kickers6 September 2026
- L0-1away to Fortuna Düsseldorf28 August 2026
What these results say
- Fortuna Köln conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Stuttgart II conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Stuttgart II failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Stuttgart II scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Fortuna Köln | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 9 |
| 15 | Stuttgart II | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Fortuna Köln vs Stuttgart II
- 12 March 2016Fortuna Koln 1–3 Stuttgart II3. Liga
- 27 September 2015Stuttgart II 3–0 Fortuna Koln3. Liga
- 4 April 2015Fortuna Koln 0–1 Stuttgart II3. Liga
- 28 September 2014Stuttgart II 3–1 Fortuna Koln3. Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Fortuna Köln carry a model rating of 6.24 against 6.16 for Stuttgart II. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.74 goals for Fortuna Köln and 1.09 for Stuttgart II. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Fortuna Köln rate 0.47 in attack and 1.62 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Stuttgart II rate 0.56 and 2.27.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Fortuna Köln a 0.7% chance of the title and Stuttgart II 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fortuna Köln the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Fortuna Köln against 1.09 for Stuttgart II. Fortuna Köln's attack/defence rating is 0.47/1.62 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/2.27 for Stuttgart II.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Fortuna Köln at home · Stuttgart II away
League matches only, 3. Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 3. Liga matches this season: Fortuna Köln 7, Stuttgart II 7.
Fortuna Köln score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Stuttgart II have let in 1 there.
Stuttgart II score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Fortuna Köln have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Fortuna Köln
- at Preußen Münster24 Oct · 3. Ligawin 26%
- vs Würzburger Kickers31 Oct · 3. Ligawin 44%
- at Waldhof Mannheim7 Nov · 3. Ligawin 32%
Stuttgart II
- vs Alemannia Aachen24 Oct · 3. Ligawin 32%
- at MSV Duisburg31 Oct · 3. Ligawin 21%
- vs Verl7 Nov · 3. Ligawin 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.