Marseille
vs
Le Havre
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Marseille 1–0 Le Havre
The model makes it 56% Marseille, 25% draw, 19% Le Havre — fair odds of 1.79, 4.00 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Marseille 1.83, Le Havre 0.84.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Marseille: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Marseille are 13th on 6 points from 6 games; Le Havre are bottom on 2 points from 6 games — Ligue 1.
- Marseille have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Estac Troyes.
- Le Havre have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Lille.
- Last 6 meetings: Marseille 6 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 10 May 2026, ended Le Havre 0–1 Marseille.
More Ligue 1 (France) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Marseille vs Le Havre
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Marseille at 56% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Marseille vs Le Havre
Marseille
- W2-0away to Estac Troyes11 October 2026
- L1-2Paris Saint Germain20 September 2026
- L0-1away to Rennes11 September 2026
- L2-3Paris FC6 September 2026
- L0-2away to Monaco30 August 2026
Le Havre
- L0-1away to Lille10 October 2026
- L2-3away to Toulouse19 September 2026
- D0-0Angers12 September 2026
- L1-2Stade Brestois 295 September 2026
- D1-1away to Lyon29 August 2026
What these results say
- Marseille failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Marseille conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Le Havre did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Le Havre conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Marseille | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 6 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Marseille
Chance to finish in the top four · 22% today
Le Havre
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 47% today
From our Ligue 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Marseille vs Le Havre
- 10 May 2026Le Havre 0–1 MarseilleLigue 1
- 18 October 2025Marseille 6–2 Le HavreLigue 1
- 10 May 2025Le Havre 1–3 MarseilleLigue 1
- 5 January 2025Marseille 5–1 Le HavreLigue 1
- 19 May 2024Le Havre 1–2 MarseilleLigue 1
- 8 October 2023Marseille 3–0 Le HavreLigue 1
Leading scorers: Marseille and Le Havre
Marseille
GoalsAssists
- A. Gouiri41
Le Havre
No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Marseille carry a model rating of 6.94 against 6.68 for Le Havre. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.83 goals for Marseille and 0.84 for Le Havre. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Marseille rate 1.12 in attack and 0.93 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Le Havre rate 0.66 and 0.97.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Marseille a 2% chance of the title and Le Havre 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Marseille the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Marseille against 0.84 for Le Havre. Marseille's attack/defence rating is 1.12/0.93 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/0.97 for Le Havre.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Marseille at home · Le Havre away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
MarseilleLe Havre
Marseille are 13th after 6 Ligue 1 matches (between 1st and 17th so far); Le Havre are 18th after 6 (between 14th and 18th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: Marseille 6, Le Havre 6.
Marseille score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Le Havre have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Marseille
- vs Toulouse1 Nov · Ligue 1win 54%
- at Bayer Leverkusen5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 21%
Le Havre
- vs Paris Saint Germain30 Oct · Ligue 1win 18%
- vs Lorient8 Nov · Ligue 1win 33%
- at Estac Troyes20 Nov · Ligue 1win 39%
- vs Strasbourg28 Nov · Ligue 1win 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.