Maccabi Tel Aviv
vs
Hapoel Petah Tikva
Ligat Ha'al prediction
Our model says: Maccabi Tel Aviv 2–0 Hapoel Petah Tikva
The model makes it 72% Maccabi Tel Aviv, 17% draw, 11% Hapoel Petah Tikva — fair odds of 1.39, 5.88 and 9.09.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Maccabi Tel Aviv 2.76, Hapoel Petah Tikva 0.80.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
One-sided: Maccabi Tel Aviv are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Maccabi Tel Aviv's rating is built from 45 Israeli Ligat Ha'al matches and Hapoel Petah Tikva's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 549 matches.
Key facts
- Maccabi Tel Aviv are 2nd on 24 points from 10 games; Hapoel Petah Tikva are 12th on 6 points from 10 games — Ligat Ha'al.
- Maccabi Tel Aviv are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Maccabi Petah Tikva.
- Hapoel Petah Tikva have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Hapoel Ramat Gan.
- Last 6 meetings: Maccabi Tel Aviv 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 23 May 2026, ended Hapoel Petah Tikva 2–2 Maccabi Tel Aviv.
More Israeli Ligat Ha'al predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Hapoel Petah Tikva
Has the model earned this number?
Maccabi Tel Aviv at 72%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Hapoel Petah Tikva
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Ligat Ha'al
- D2-2Maccabi Petah Tikva6 November 2026
- W5-0away to Hapoel Ramat Gan2 November 2026
- W6-2Hapoel Haifa24 October 2026
- D0-0away to Beitar Jerusalem19 October 2026
- D0-0Bnei Sakhnin10 October 2026
Hapoel Petah Tikva
Ligat Ha'al
- W2-1Hapoel Ramat Gan7 November 2026
- L1-2away to Hapoel Haifa31 October 2026
- L0-1Beitar Jerusalem25 October 2026
- L0-2away to Bnei Sakhnin17 October 2026
- L0-3Maccabi Netanya10 October 2026
What these results say
- Maccabi Tel Aviv went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Hapoel Petah Tikva conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Hapoel Petah Tikva failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 31 | 10 | +21 | 24 |
| 12 | Hapoel Petah Tikva | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 17 | -12 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 56% today
Hapoel Petah Tikva
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 65% today
From our Ligat Ha'al season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Hapoel Petah Tikva
- 23 May 2026Hapoel Petah Tikva 2–2 Maccabi Tel AvivLigat Ha'al
- 5 May 2026Maccabi Tel Aviv 4–0 Hapoel Petah TikvaLigat Ha'al
- 15 December 2025Maccabi Tel Aviv 2–2 Hapoel Petah TikvaLigat Ha'al
- 16 September 2025Hapoel Petah Tikva 0–4 Maccabi Tel AvivLigat Ha'al
- 21 January 2024Hapoel Petah Tikva 0–0 Maccabi Tel AvivLigat Ha'al
- 30 September 2023Maccabi Tel Aviv 2–0 Hapoel Petah TikvaLigat Ha'al
Leading scorers: Maccabi Tel Aviv and Hapoel Petah Tikva
Maccabi Tel Aviv
GoalsAssists
- Dor Peretz72
- E. Sokler51
- E. Madmon33
Hapoel Petah Tikva
No player in Ligat Ha'al's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Maccabi Tel Aviv a 55.5% chance of the title and Hapoel Petah Tikva 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Maccabi Tel Aviv the highest probability at 72%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.76 expected goals for Maccabi Tel Aviv against 0.80 for Hapoel Petah Tikva. Maccabi Tel Aviv's attack/defence rating is 1.05/1.27 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.43/1.67 for Hapoel Petah Tikva.
How the model reaches 72% for Maccabi Tel Aviv to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Maccabi Tel Aviv to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, Maccabi Tel Aviv's ratings add 19 points and Hapoel Petah Tikva's ratings add 14 points, which lands on the published 72%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage39%+2
- Maccabi Tel Aviv's ratings58%+19
- Hapoel Petah Tikva's ratings72%+14
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Maccabi Tel Aviv at home · Hapoel Petah Tikva away
League matches only, Ligat Ha'al, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligat Ha'al matches this season: Maccabi Tel Aviv 10, Hapoel Petah Tikva 10.
Maccabi Tel Aviv score most often in the 61–75 minute window (8 goals); Hapoel Petah Tikva have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Maccabi Tel Aviv
- at Ironi Kiryat Shmona1 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 64%
- vs Ironi Tiberias5 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 65%
- vs Hapoel Jerusalem12 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 72%
- at Maccabi Haifa19 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 54%
- vs Hapoel Beer Sheva29 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 47%
Hapoel Petah Tikva
- at Maccabi Petah Tikva1 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 31%
- vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona5 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 32%
- vs Ironi Tiberias12 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 30%
- at Hapoel Jerusalem19 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 31%
- vs Maccabi Haifa29 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 23%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.