Regular Season - 11 · 28 November 2026, 18:00 UTC

Hapoel Haifa vs Ironi Tiberias Ligat Ha'al prediction

Sammy Ofer Stadium, Haifa

Our model says: Hapoel Haifa 0–1 Ironi Tiberias

The model makes it 34% Hapoel Haifa, 28% draw, 38% Ironi Tiberias — fair odds of 2.94, 3.57 and 2.63.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Hapoel Haifa 1.32, Ironi Tiberias 1.42.

Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Hapoel Haifa's rating is built from 43 Israeli Ligat Ha'al matches and Ironi Tiberias's from 43, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 549 matches.

Key facts

  • Hapoel Haifa are 8th on 12 points from 10 games; Ironi Tiberias are bottom on 4 points from 10 games — Ligat Ha'al.
  • Hapoel Haifa have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Ironi Kiryat Shmona.
  • Ironi Tiberias have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Beitar Jerusalem.
  • Last 6 meetings: Hapoel Haifa 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 28 July 2026, ended Hapoel Haifa 3–1 Ironi Tiberias.

More Israeli Ligat Ha'al predictions

All Israeli Ligat Ha'al predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Hapoel Haifa vs Ironi Tiberias

56%
Both teams to score
51%
Over 2.5 goals
49%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Hapoel Haifa win Draw Ironi Tiberias win
  1. 1–113%
  2. 0–19%
  3. 1–29%
  4. 2–18%
  5. 1–08%
  6. 0–07%
  7. 0–27%

Scores read Hapoel Haifa first; the other scorelines share the remaining 40%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Ironi Tiberias at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Hapoel Haifa vs Ironi Tiberias

Hapoel Haifa

Ligat Ha'al

  • L0-2away to Ironi Kiryat Shmona7 November 2026
  • W2-1Hapoel Petah Tikva31 October 2026
  • L2-6away to Maccabi Tel Aviv24 October 2026
  • L0-2Hapoel Ramat Gan17 October 2026
  • W2-1Maccabi Petah Tikva10 October 2026

Ironi Tiberias

Ligat Ha'al

  • D1-1Beitar Jerusalem7 November 2026
  • D1-1away to Bnei Sakhnin31 October 2026
  • D1-1Maccabi Netanya24 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Hapoel Tel Aviv17 October 2026
  • L0-2Hapoel Beer Sheva10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Hapoel Haifa conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Ironi Tiberias did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Ironi Tiberias conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Ironi Tiberias had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligat Ha'al table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Hapoel Haifa103341318-512
14Ironi Tiberias102441014-44

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Hapoel Haifa

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 14% today

Win 7%
Draw 13%
Defeat 19%

Ironi Tiberias

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 42% today

Win 33%
Draw 44%
Defeat 52%

From our Ligat Ha'al season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Hapoel Haifa vs Ironi Tiberias

  • 28 July 2026Hapoel Haifa 3–1 Ironi TiberiasToto Cup Ligat Al
  • 29 April 2026Hapoel Haifa 1–1 Ironi TiberiasLigat Ha'al
  • 13 December 2025Hapoel Haifa 2–0 Ironi TiberiasLigat Ha'al
  • 23 August 2025Ironi Tiberias 1–0 Hapoel HaifaLigat Ha'al
  • 6 August 2025Ironi Tiberias 0–1 Hapoel HaifaToto Cup Ligat Al
  • 25 January 2025Ironi Tiberias 1–1 Hapoel HaifaLigat Ha'al

Leading scorers: Hapoel Haifa and Ironi Tiberias

Hapoel Haifa

GoalsAssists

  • A. Turgeman51

Ironi Tiberias

No player in Ligat Ha'al's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Hapoel Haifa (8th, with Ironi Tiberias 14th), while our numbers lean to Ironi Tiberias. Ironi Tiberias rate 0.54 in attack and 1.55 in defence, Hapoel Haifa 0.54 and 1.80 (lower is better in defence), so Ironi Tiberias have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 8-point gap in the table does not yet show.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Hapoel Haifa Ironi Tiberias
0.54 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.54
1.8 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.55
1.32 Model expected goals (this match) 1.42

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Ironi Tiberias the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Hapoel Haifa against 1.42 for Ironi Tiberias. Hapoel Haifa's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.8 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.55 for Ironi Tiberias.

Hapoel Haifa carry a model rating of 6.25 against 6.33 for Ironi Tiberias. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 38% for Ironi Tiberias to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Ironi Tiberias to win. Then home advantage takes away 2 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Hapoel Haifa's ratings add 2 points and Ironi Tiberias's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 38%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground37%
  2. Home advantage35%−2
  3. Both sides at this match's level34%−1
  4. Hapoel Haifa's ratings36%+2
  5. Ironi Tiberias's ratings38%+2

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Hapoel HaifaIroni Tiberias
10Matches10
3W 3D 4LRecord2W 4D 4L
13 1.3 per gameGoals scored10 1.0 per game
18 1.8 per gameGoals conceded14 1.4 per game
1 of 10Clean sheets1 of 10
3 of 10Failed to score3 of 10
1 of 2Penalties scored2 of 2
23 2.3 per gameYellow cards16 1.6 per game
4Red cards1
4-2-3-1 9×Usual shape5-3-2 4×

Hapoel Haifa at home · Ironi Tiberias away

5Played5
3W 1D 1LRecord1W 1D 3L
7–5Goals for – against5–8
1 of 5Clean sheets0 of 5

League matches only, Ligat Ha'al, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Ligat Ha'al matches this season: Hapoel Haifa 10, Ironi Tiberias 10.

Hapoel Haifa scored 232213
Ironi Tiberias conceded 101363
Ironi Tiberias scored 121221
Hapoel Haifa conceded 221452

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Hapoel Haifa

  • at Hapoel Jerusalem1 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 35%
  • vs Maccabi Haifa5 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 27%
  • vs Hapoel Beer Sheva12 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 19%
  • at Hapoel Tel Aviv19 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 15%
  • vs Maccabi Netanya29 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 27%

Ironi Tiberias

  • vs Hapoel Ramat Gan1 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 51%
  • at Maccabi Tel Aviv5 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 15%
  • at Hapoel Petah Tikva12 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 40%
  • vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona19 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 40%
  • vs Maccabi Petah Tikva29 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 44%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.