Regular Season - 11 · 28 November 2026, 18:00 UTC

Maccabi Petah Tikva vs Hapoel Tel Aviv Ligat Ha'al prediction

HaMoshava Stadium, Petah Tikva

Our model says: Maccabi Petah Tikva 0–2 Hapoel Tel Aviv

The model makes it 18% Maccabi Petah Tikva, 22% draw, 60% Hapoel Tel Aviv — fair odds of 5.56, 4.55 and 1.67.

Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (10%).

Expected goals: Maccabi Petah Tikva 0.97, Hapoel Tel Aviv 2.22.

Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.

One-sided: Hapoel Tel Aviv are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Maccabi Petah Tikva's rating is built from 10 Israeli Ligat Ha'al matches and Hapoel Tel Aviv's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 549 matches.

Key facts

  • Maccabi Petah Tikva are 9th on 10 points from 10 games; Hapoel Tel Aviv are top on 25 points from 10 games — Ligat Ha'al.
  • Maccabi Petah Tikva have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Maccabi Tel Aviv.
  • Hapoel Tel Aviv are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 1-0 win away to Hapoel Beer Sheva.
  • Last 6 meetings: Maccabi Petah Tikva 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 20 April 2024, ended Maccabi Petah Tikva 4–2 Hapoel Tel Aviv.

More Israeli Ligat Ha'al predictions

All Israeli Ligat Ha'al predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Maccabi Petah Tikva vs Hapoel Tel Aviv

56%
Both teams to score
62%
Over 2.5 goals
38%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Maccabi Petah Tikva win Draw Hapoel Tel Aviv win
  1. 0–210%
  2. 1–210%
  3. 1–19%
  4. 0–19%
  5. 0–38%
  6. 1–37%
  7. 2–25%

Scores read Maccabi Petah Tikva first; the other scorelines share the remaining 43%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Hapoel Tel Aviv at 60%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Maccabi Petah Tikva vs Hapoel Tel Aviv

Maccabi Petah Tikva

Ligat Ha'al

  • D2-2away to Maccabi Tel Aviv6 November 2026
  • L2-5Hapoel Beer Sheva1 November 2026
  • W2-1away to Hapoel Ramat Gan24 October 2026
  • L1-2Maccabi Haifa17 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Hapoel Haifa10 October 2026

Hapoel Tel Aviv

Ligat Ha'al

  • W1-0away to Hapoel Beer Sheva8 November 2026
  • W2-1Maccabi Haifa2 November 2026
  • W3-0away to Hapoel Jerusalem24 October 2026
  • W1-0Ironi Tiberias17 October 2026
  • W3-1away to Ironi Kiryat Shmona10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Maccabi Petah Tikva scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Maccabi Petah Tikva conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Maccabi Petah Tikva had three goals or more.
  • Hapoel Tel Aviv won every one of these 5 matches.
  • Hapoel Tel Aviv scored in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligat Ha'al table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Maccabi Petah Tikva103161623-710
1Hapoel Tel Aviv10811216+1525

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Maccabi Petah Tikva

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 30% today

Win 18%
Draw 29%
Defeat 33%

Hapoel Tel Aviv

Chance to finish top of the regular season · 29% today

Win 32%
Draw 23%
Defeat 19%

From our Ligat Ha'al season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Maccabi Petah Tikva vs Hapoel Tel Aviv

  • 20 April 2024Maccabi Petah Tikva 4–2 Hapoel Tel AvivLigat Ha'al
  • 24 February 2024Maccabi Petah Tikva 3–0 Hapoel Tel AvivLigat Ha'al
  • 19 December 2023Hapoel Tel Aviv 2–0 Maccabi Petah TikvaLigat Ha'al
  • 12 August 2023Hapoel Tel Aviv 0–2 Maccabi Petah TikvaToto Cup Ligat Al
  • 1 January 2022Hapoel Tel Aviv 2–1 Maccabi Petah TikvaLigat Ha'al
  • 18 September 2021Maccabi Petah Tikva 1–1 Hapoel Tel AvivLigat Ha'al

Leading scorers: Maccabi Petah Tikva and Hapoel Tel Aviv

Maccabi Petah Tikva

GoalsAssists

  • J. Cortés41
  • L. Hazan31

Hapoel Tel Aviv

GoalsAssists

  • R. Alkokin32
  • E. Boateng32
  • D. Dappa31

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Maccabi Petah Tikva a 0% chance of the title and Hapoel Tel Aviv 29%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Maccabi Petah Tikva Hapoel Tel Aviv
0.65 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.71
2.15 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 0.95
0.97 Model expected goals (this match) 2.22

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Hapoel Tel Aviv the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Maccabi Petah Tikva against 2.22 for Hapoel Tel Aviv. Maccabi Petah Tikva's attack/defence rating is 0.65/2.15 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/0.95 for Hapoel Tel Aviv.

Maccabi Petah Tikva carry a model rating of 6.27 against 6.72 for Hapoel Tel Aviv.

How the model reaches 60% for Hapoel Tel Aviv to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Hapoel Tel Aviv to win. Then home advantage takes away 2 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Maccabi Petah Tikva's ratings add 15 points and Hapoel Tel Aviv's ratings add 11 points, which lands on the published 60%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground37%
  2. Home advantage35%−2
  3. Both sides at this match's level34%−1
  4. Maccabi Petah Tikva's ratings49%+15
  5. Hapoel Tel Aviv's ratings60%+11

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Maccabi Petah TikvaHapoel Tel Aviv
10Matches10
3W 1D 6LRecord8W 1D 1L
16 1.6 per gameGoals scored21 2.1 per game
23 2.3 per gameGoals conceded6 0.6 per game
0 of 10Clean sheets7 of 10
0 of 10Failed to score1 of 10
1 of 1Penalties scored1 of 2
15 1.5 per gameYellow cards30 3.0 per game
0Red cards3
5-4-1 4×Usual shape4-2-3-1 10×

Maccabi Petah Tikva at home · Hapoel Tel Aviv away

5Played5
1W 0D 4LRecord3W 1D 1L
8–14Goals for – against8–5
0 of 5Clean sheets3 of 5

League matches only, Ligat Ha'al, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Ligat Ha'al matches this season: Maccabi Petah Tikva 10, Hapoel Tel Aviv 10.

Maccabi Petah Tikva scored 323421
Hapoel Tel Aviv conceded 111204

Maccabi Petah Tikva score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Hapoel Tel Aviv have let in 2 there.

Hapoel Tel Aviv scored 223433
Maccabi Petah Tikva conceded 541256

Hapoel Tel Aviv score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Maccabi Petah Tikva have let in 2 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Maccabi Petah Tikva

  • vs Hapoel Petah Tikva1 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 43%
  • at Maccabi Netanya5 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 23%
  • at Ironi Kiryat Shmona12 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 33%
  • vs Bnei Sakhnin19 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 40%
  • at Ironi Tiberias29 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 31%

Hapoel Tel Aviv

  • vs Maccabi Netanya1 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 49%
  • at Bnei Sakhnin5 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 54%
  • at Beitar Jerusalem12 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 39%
  • vs Hapoel Haifa19 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 61%
  • at Hapoel Ramat Gan29 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 65%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.