Regular Season - 11 · 28 November 2026, 18:00 UTC

Beitar Jerusalem vs Hapoel Jerusalem Ligat Ha'al prediction

Teddy Stadium, Jerusalem

Our model says: Beitar Jerusalem 2–0 Hapoel Jerusalem

The model makes it 58% Beitar Jerusalem, 24% draw, 18% Hapoel Jerusalem — fair odds of 1.72, 4.17 and 5.56.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).

Expected goals: Beitar Jerusalem 2.04, Hapoel Jerusalem 0.93.

Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.

One-sided: Beitar Jerusalem are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published · updated

Key facts

  • Beitar Jerusalem are 4th on 18 points from 10 games; Hapoel Jerusalem are 10th on 9 points from 10 games — Ligat Ha'al.
  • Beitar Jerusalem are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Ironi Tiberias.
  • Hapoel Jerusalem have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Bnei Sakhnin.
  • Last 6 meetings: Beitar Jerusalem 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 12 April 2026, ended Hapoel Jerusalem 0–2 Beitar Jerusalem.

More Israeli Ligat Ha'al predictions

All Israeli Ligat Ha'al predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Beitar Jerusalem vs Hapoel Jerusalem

53%
Both teams to score
57%
Over 2.5 goals
43%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Beitar Jerusalem win Draw Hapoel Jerusalem win
  1. 2–011%
  2. 1–110%
  3. 2–110%
  4. 1–010%
  5. 3–07%
  6. 3–17%
  7. 0–06%

Scores read Beitar Jerusalem first; the other scorelines share the remaining 39%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Beitar Jerusalem at 58%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Beitar Jerusalem vs Hapoel Jerusalem

Beitar Jerusalem

Ligat Ha'al

  • D1-1away to Ironi Tiberias7 November 2026
  • D1-1Ironi Kiryat Shmona31 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Hapoel Petah Tikva25 October 2026
  • D0-0Maccabi Tel Aviv19 October 2026
  • W4-0away to Hapoel Ramat Gan11 October 2026

Hapoel Jerusalem

Ligat Ha'al

  • D1-1Bnei Sakhnin7 November 2026
  • D1-1away to Maccabi Netanya31 October 2026
  • L0-3Hapoel Tel Aviv24 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Hapoel Beer Sheva18 October 2026
  • L1-4Maccabi Haifa12 October 2026

What these results say

  • Beitar Jerusalem went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Beitar Jerusalem scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Beitar Jerusalem had two goals or fewer.
  • Hapoel Jerusalem did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Hapoel Jerusalem conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Hapoel Jerusalem scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligat Ha'al table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Beitar Jerusalem105321411+318
10Hapoel Jerusalem102351623-79

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Beitar Jerusalem

Chance to finish in the top six · 94% today

Win 97%
Draw 93%
Defeat 90%

Hapoel Jerusalem

Chance to finish in the bottom three

Win 15%
Draw 24%
Defeat 30%

From our Ligat Ha'al season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Beitar Jerusalem vs Hapoel Jerusalem

  • 12 April 2026Hapoel Jerusalem 0–2 Beitar JerusalemLigat Ha'al
  • 8 December 2025Beitar Jerusalem 1–1 Hapoel JerusalemLigat Ha'al
  • 21 February 2025Beitar Jerusalem 1–1 Hapoel JerusalemLigat Ha'al
  • 1 December 2024Hapoel Jerusalem 3–3 Beitar JerusalemLigat Ha'al
  • 6 August 2024Beitar Jerusalem 2–0 Hapoel JerusalemToto Cup Ligat Al
  • 11 May 2024Hapoel Jerusalem 3–0 Beitar JerusalemLigat Ha'al

Leading scorers: Beitar Jerusalem and Hapoel Jerusalem

Beitar Jerusalem

GoalsAssists

  • O. Atzili33
  • E. Ansah31

Hapoel Jerusalem

GoalsAssists

  • N. Vrasana50
  • A. Idoko42

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Beitar Jerusalem a 1.5% chance of the title and Hapoel Jerusalem 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Beitar Jerusalem Hapoel Jerusalem
0.71 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.53
1.21 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.83
2.04 Model expected goals (this match) 0.93

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Beitar Jerusalem the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Beitar Jerusalem against 0.93 for Hapoel Jerusalem. Beitar Jerusalem's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.21 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.83 for Hapoel Jerusalem.

Beitar Jerusalem carry a model rating of 6.59 against 6.23 for Hapoel Jerusalem.

How the model reaches 58% for Beitar Jerusalem to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Beitar Jerusalem to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Beitar Jerusalem's ratings add 9 points and Hapoel Jerusalem's ratings add 11 points, which lands on the published 58%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground37%
  2. Home advantage39%+2
  3. Both sides at this match's level38%−1
  4. Beitar Jerusalem's ratings47%+9
  5. Hapoel Jerusalem's ratings58%+11

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Beitar JerusalemHapoel Jerusalem
10Matches10
5W 3D 2LRecord2W 3D 5L
14 1.4 per gameGoals scored16 1.6 per game
11 1.1 per gameGoals conceded23 2.3 per game
4 of 10Clean sheets0 of 10
2 of 10Failed to score2 of 10
1 of 2Penalties scored–
27 2.7 per gameYellow cards23 2.3 per game
3Red cards1
4-3-3 8×Usual shape4-4-2 3×

Beitar Jerusalem at home · Hapoel Jerusalem away

5Played5
2W 2D 1LRecord1W 2D 2L
7–7Goals for – against8–8
1 of 5Clean sheets0 of 5

League matches only, Ligat Ha'al, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Ligat Ha'al matches this season: Beitar Jerusalem 10, Hapoel Jerusalem 10.

Beitar Jerusalem scored 323231
Hapoel Jerusalem conceded 227363
Hapoel Jerusalem scored 222532
Beitar Jerusalem conceded 010234

Hapoel Jerusalem score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Beitar Jerusalem have let in 2 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Beitar Jerusalem

  • at Maccabi Haifa1 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 41%
  • vs Hapoel Beer Sheva5 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 35%
  • vs Hapoel Tel Aviv12 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 31%
  • at Maccabi Netanya19 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 40%
  • vs Bnei Sakhnin29 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 54%

Hapoel Jerusalem

  • vs Hapoel Haifa1 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 38%
  • at Hapoel Ramat Gan5 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 42%
  • at Maccabi Tel Aviv12 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 12%
  • vs Hapoel Petah Tikva19 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 40%
  • at Ironi Kiryat Shmona29 Dec · Ligat Ha'alwin 32%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.