Lille
vs
Galatasaray
UEFA Champions League prediction
Our model says: Lille 2–1 Galatasaray
The model makes it 53% Lille, 24% draw, 23% Galatasaray — fair odds of 1.89, 4.17 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Lille 2.13, Galatasaray 1.25.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: High.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Lille are 32nd on 0 points from 2 games; Galatasaray are 34th on 0 points from 2 games — UEFA Champions League.
- Lille have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Le Havre.
- Galatasaray have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Kasımpaşa.
More Champions League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Lille vs Galatasaray
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lille at 53% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Lille vs Galatasaray
Lille
- L0-3away to Arsenal13 October 2026
- L2-3Real Betis8 September 2026
Galatasaray
- L1-4Barcelona13 October 2026
- L1-3away to Sporting CP9 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | Lille | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 0 |
| 34 | Galatasaray | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Lille carry a model rating of 7.06 against 6.96 for Galatasaray. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.13 goals for Lille and 1.25 for Galatasaray. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lille rate 1.02 in attack and 0.69 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Galatasaray rate 1.31 and 1.08.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lille the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.13 expected goals for Lille against 1.25 for Galatasaray. Lille's attack/defence rating is 1.02/0.69 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.31/1.08 for Galatasaray.
Season stats
Lille at home · Galatasaray away
League matches only, this season — Lille in the Ligue 1, Galatasaray in the Süper Lig. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Lille 6 in the Ligue 1, Galatasaray 7 in the Süper Lig.
Galatasaray score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Lille have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Lille
- at Monaco25 Oct · Ligue 1win 33%
- vs Lens30 Oct · Ligue 1win 48%
- at Bodo/Glimt3 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 33%
- at Rennes8 Nov · Ligue 1win 41%
Galatasaray
- vs Fenerbahçe26 Oct · Süper Ligwin 40%
- at Konyaspor30 Oct · Süper Ligwin 52%
- vs VfB Stuttgart3 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 48%
- vs Amed7 Nov · Süper Ligwin 53%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.