Karpaty
vs
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Karpaty 2–0 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
The model makes it 56% Karpaty, 25% draw, 19% Epitsentr Dunayivtsi — fair odds of 1.79, 4.00 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Karpaty 2.21, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.84.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Key facts
- Karpaty are 3rd on 14 points from 7 games; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are 6th on 8 points from 7 games — Premier League.
- Karpaty have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Veres Rivne.
- Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are without a win in 3, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Livyi Bereh.
- Last 6 meetings: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 19 April 2026, ended Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0–0 Karpaty.
All Ukrainian Premier League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Karpaty vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Karpaty at 56% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Karpaty vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Karpaty
- D1-1Veres Rivne20 September 2026
- W2-0away to Kolos Kovalivka11 September 2026
- L1-2Shakhtar Donetsk5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Livyi Bereh29 August 2026
- W3-0Bukovyna15 August 2026
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
- L0-2Livyi Bereh19 September 2026
- L0-3away to Dynamo Kyiv14 September 2026
- D0-0Bukovyna6 September 2026
- W3-0away to Kudrivka29 August 2026
- D0-0Veres Rivne14 August 2026
What these results say
- Karpaty scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Epitsentr Dunayivtsi failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Epitsentr Dunayivtsi failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Karpaty | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 14 |
| 6 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Karpaty vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
- 19 April 2026Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0–0 KarpatyPremier League
- 19 October 2025Karpaty 1–3 Epitsentr DunayivtsiPremier League
- 5 November 2023Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 3–2 KarpatyPersha Liga
- 2 September 2023Karpaty 2–0 Epitsentr DunayivtsiPersha Liga
- 11 November 2022Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1–0 KarpatyPersha Liga
- 24 September 2022Karpaty 0–2 Epitsentr DunayivtsiPersha Liga
Leading scorers: Karpaty and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Karpaty
- N. Rusyn1 goal
- J. Séry1 goal
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Karpaty carry a model rating of 6.64 against 6.31 for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.21 goals for Karpaty and 0.84 for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Karpaty rate 0.82 in attack and 1.25 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi rate 0.56 and 1.66.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Karpaty a 3.5% chance of the title and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Karpaty the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Karpaty against 0.84 for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi. Karpaty's attack/defence rating is 0.82/1.25 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.66 for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Karpaty at home · Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Karpaty 7, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 7.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Karpaty
- at Chornomorets24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 44%
- vs Kudrivka31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 66%
- at FC Kharkiv7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 28%
- vs Zorya Luhansk21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 54%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
- vs FC Kharkiv24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 27%
- at Zorya Luhansk31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 28%
- vs Kryvbas KR7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 40%
- at Chornomorets21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.