Kifisia
vs
AEK Athens FC
Super League 1 prediction
The model makes it 18% Kifisia, 24% draw, 58% AEK Athens FC — fair odds of 5.56, 4.17 and 1.72. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (12%).
Expected goals: Kifisia 0.86, AEK Athens FC 1.75.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Kifisia
No earlier matches on record this season.
AEK Athens FC
- W4-0Iraklis 190822 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AEK Athens FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
Where they stand. Kifisia has not started the league season yet. Full tables
Head-to-head: Kifisia vs AEK Athens FC
- 22 March 2026AEK Athens FC 3–0 KifisiaSuper League 1
- 5 October 2025Kifisia 2–3 AEK Athens FCSuper League 1
- 18 February 2024AEK Athens FC 3–0 KifisiaSuper League 1
- 4 November 2023Kifisia 1–1 AEK Athens FCSuper League 1
- 11 January 2023AEK Athens FC 3–0 KifisiaCup
- 15 December 2022Kifisia 0–2 AEK Athens FCCup
A clear gap in the ratings
Kifisia carry a model rating of 6.49 against 7.01 for AEK Athens FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): AEK Athens FC W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.86 goals for Kifisia and 1.75 for AEK Athens FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Kifisia rate 0.62 in attack and 1.29 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; AEK Athens FC rate 0.97 and 0.73.
That points to 48% for over two and a half goals and 48% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 0-1 (12%), 1-1 (12%), 0-2 (11%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AEK Athens FC the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Kifisia against 1.75 for AEK Athens FC. Kifisia's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.97/0.73 for AEK Athens FC.