Asteras Tripolis
vs
Olympiakos Piraeus
Super League 1 prediction
The model makes it 18% Asteras Tripolis, 22% draw, 60% Olympiakos Piraeus — fair odds of 5.56, 4.55 and 1.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Asteras Tripolis 1.01, Olympiakos Piraeus 2.00.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Asteras Tripolis
No earlier matches on record this season.
Olympiakos Piraeus
- W1-0Atromitos22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
Where they stand. Asteras Tripolis has not started the league season yet. Full tables
Head-to-head: Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus
- 4 February 2026Asteras Tripolis 0–3 Olympiakos PiraeusSuper League 1
- 24 September 2025Asteras Tripolis 1–2 Olympiakos PiraeusCup
- 23 August 2025Olympiakos Piraeus 2–0 Asteras TripolisSuper League 1
- 9 February 2025Olympiakos Piraeus 1–1 Asteras TripolisSuper League 1
- 27 October 2024Asteras Tripolis 1–0 Olympiakos PiraeusSuper League 1
- 25 February 2024Olympiakos Piraeus 2–1 Asteras TripolisSuper League 1
A clear gap in the ratings
Asteras Tripolis carry a model rating of 6.54 against 7.04 for Olympiakos Piraeus. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Olympiakos Piraeus W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.01 goals for Asteras Tripolis and 2.00 for Olympiakos Piraeus. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Asteras Tripolis rate 0.72 in attack and 1.35 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Olympiakos Piraeus rate 1.06 and 0.74.
That points to 58% for over two and a half goals and 55% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Olympiakos Piraeus the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Asteras Tripolis against 2 for Olympiakos Piraeus. Asteras Tripolis's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.06/0.74 for Olympiakos Piraeus.