Atromitos
vs
PAOK
Super League 1 prediction
The model makes it 22% Atromitos, 20% draw, 58% PAOK — fair odds of 4.55, 5.00 and 1.72. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).
Expected goals: Atromitos 1.47, PAOK 2.44.
Both teams to score: 71%. Over 2.5 goals: 75%, under 2.5: 25%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Atromitos
- L0-1away to Olympiakos Piraeus22 August 2026
PAOK
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Atromitos | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where they stand. PAOK has not started the league season yet. Full tables
Head-to-head: Atromitos vs PAOK
- 6 January 2026PAOK 1–1 AtromitosCup
- 14 December 2025Atromitos 2–0 PAOKSuper League 1
- 31 August 2025PAOK 1–0 AtromitosSuper League 1
- 22 December 2024PAOK 3–0 AtromitosSuper League 1
- 1 September 2024Atromitos 1–2 PAOKSuper League 1
- 4 February 2024Atromitos 0–2 PAOKSuper League 1
The two sides
Atromitos carry a model rating of 6.47 against 6.88 for PAOK. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Atromitos L; PAOK W-W-L-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.47 goals for Atromitos and 2.44 for PAOK. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Atromitos rate 0.72 in attack and 1.54 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; PAOK rate 1.13 and 1.08.
That points to 75% for over two and a half goals and 71% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-2 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 1-3 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives PAOK the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Atromitos against 2.44 for PAOK. Atromitos's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.54 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.13/1.08 for PAOK.