7 September 2026, 17:30 UTC

Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Maccabi Tel Aviv Ligat Ha'al prediction & result

Toto Turner Stadium
Full time1 – 4

Final score: Hapoel Beer Sheva 1-4 Maccabi Tel Aviv.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Hapoel Beer Sheva, 29% draw, 31% Maccabi Tel Aviv — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Hapoel Beer Sheva at 40% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Hapoel Beer Sheva0%Draw1%Maccabi Tel Aviv99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

1'
⚽H. Varela
🔁Lucas Venturaout: Z. Ahmed
5'
25'
Noam Ben Harosh
Niv Yehoshua
28'
Ofir Marciano
33'
35'
⚽E. Sokler (pen)
Miguel Vítor
39'
Eliel Peretz
44'
Eliel Peretz
44'
Eliel Peretz
44'
⚽A. C. Ganahassist: N. Yehoshua
45'
🔁Miguel Vitorout: D. T. Diop
46'
61'
⚽Dor Peretz (pen)
🔁A. Ugarrizaout: A. Forson
62'
🔁G. Mizrahiout: Joao Victor
62'
68'
⚽E. Soklerassist: H. Varela
69'
🔁J. Tavernierout: T. Asante
69'
🔁E. Soklerout: E. Madmon
🔁A. C. Ganahout: Y. Malede
75'
79'
⚽D. Peretz
81'
🔁I. Sissokhoout: D. Glazer
81'
🔁D. Peretzout: I. Shahar
Zahi Ahmed
84'
86'
🔁O. Davidaout: I. Ben Simon

Match stats — Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Maccabi Tel Aviv

43%Possession57%
7Shots22
2On target14
4Corners5

Line-ups

Hapoel Beer Sheva 4-1-4-1
  • 1O. MarcianoG
  • 2G. MizrahiD
  • 4Miguel VitorD
  • 12I. RotmanD
  • 5P. AmadorD
  • 28N. YehoshuaM
  • 20J. EastM
  • 25Lucas VenturaM
  • 7E. PeretzM
  • 11A. C. GanahM
  • 90A. UgarrizaF
Substitutes
  • 34M. WolffG
  • 15I. NachmiasD
  • 3M. BaltaxaD
  • 44D. T. DiopD
  • 17A. ForsonM
  • 14Y. MaledeF
  • 9Z. AhmedF
  • 70Joao VictorF
  • 19A. OhanaF
Coach: Ran Kozuch
Maccabi Tel Aviv 4-1-3-2
  • 1O. MelikaG
  • 2J. TavernierD
  • 5M. CamaraD
  • 13R. ShlomoD
  • 22N. Ben HarushD
  • 28I. SissokhoM
  • 77O. DavidaM
  • 16G. KanichowskyM
  • 29H. VarelaM
  • 42D. PeretzF
  • 9E. SoklerF
Substitutes
  • 90R. MishpatiG
  • 6T. AsanteD
  • 41I. Ben HamoD
  • 18D. GlazerM
  • 30I. NoyM
  • 60I. Ben SimonF
  • 36I. ShaharM
  • 33H. LayousF
  • 19E. MadmonF
Coach: Kenny Miller

Form going into Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Maccabi Tel Aviv

Hapoel Beer Sheva

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2Hapoel Haifa2 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Hapoel Ramat Gan29 August 2026
  • L2-5away to Sabah FA25 August 2026
  • W2-1Sabah FA19 August 2026
  • W2-0away to FK Crvena Zvezda11 August 2026

Maccabi Tel Aviv

All competitions we cover

  • W3-1Maccabi Haifa31 August 2026
  • D1-1FC Lugano27 August 2026
  • L1-2away to FC Lugano20 August 2026
  • W3-1away to CSKA Sofia13 August 2026
  • L0-3CSKA Sofia6 August 2026

What these results say

  • Hapoel Beer Sheva scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Hapoel Beer Sheva conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Hapoel Beer Sheva had three goals or more.
  • Maccabi Tel Aviv conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Maccabi Tel Aviv scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Maccabi Tel Aviv had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligat Ha'al table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Hapoel Beer Sheva86111710+719
1Maccabi Tel Aviv8620248+1620

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Hapoel Beer Sheva and Maccabi Tel Aviv

Hapoel Beer Sheva

GoalsAssists

  • I. Zlatanović40

Maccabi Tel Aviv

GoalsAssists

  • Dor Peretz61
  • E. Madmon22
  • O. Davida21

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Maccabi Tel Aviv won 4–1 at Hapoel Beer Sheva. The model had leaned towards a win for Hapoel Beer Sheva at 40% and given a win for Maccabi Tel Aviv 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: H. Varela 1' for Maccabi Tel Aviv, E. Sokler (penalty) 35' for Maccabi Tel Aviv, A. C. Ganah 45' for Hapoel Beer Sheva, E. Sokler 68' for Maccabi Tel Aviv, D. Peretz 79' for Maccabi Tel Aviv. Sent off: Eliel Peretz (Hapoel Beer Sheva) 44'.

How the call on Hapoel Beer Sheva v Maccabi Tel Aviv has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 41% / 30% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 40% / 29% / 31%: the biggest move is Maccabi Tel Aviv's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Hapoel Beer Sheva win40%▼ −1
  2. Draw29%▼ −1
  3. Maccabi Tel Aviv win31%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.