FC OSS
vs
Jong Ajax
Eerste Divisie prediction
Our model says: FC OSS 2–1 Jong Ajax
The model makes it 52% FC OSS, 26% draw, 22% Jong Ajax — fair odds of 1.92, 3.85 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: FC OSS 1.86, Jong Ajax 1.03.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to FC OSS: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- FC OSS are 13th on 12 points from 10 games; Jong Ajax are 18th on 8 points from 10 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
- FC OSS have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Helmond Sport.
- Jong Ajax are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to VVV Venlo.
- Last 6 meetings: FC OSS 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 13 April 2026, ended Jong Ajax 1–2 FC OSS.
More Eerste Divisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC OSS vs Jong Ajax
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC OSS at 52% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC OSS vs Jong Ajax
FC OSS
- W3-1Helmond Sport9 October 2026
- W4-1MVV3 October 2026
- L0-1away to Emmen26 September 2026
- W3-0Dordrecht18 September 2026
- L1-3away to VVV Venlo11 September 2026
Jong Ajax
- L0-3VVV Venlo9 October 2026
- D0-0Roda18 September 2026
- L1-6away to Jong Utrecht14 September 2026
- L0-2Waalwijk11 September 2026
- W1-0away to Almere City FC4 September 2026
What these results say
- FC OSS scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC OSS conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for FC OSS had three goals or more.
- Jong Ajax failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | FC OSS | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 12 |
| 18 | Jong Ajax | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 25 | -12 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
FC OSS
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 7% today
Jong Ajax
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 57% today
From our Eerste Divisie season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: FC OSS vs Jong Ajax
- 13 April 2026Jong Ajax 1–2 FC OSSEerste Divisie
- 21 October 2025FC OSS 1–1 Jong AjaxEerste Divisie
- 9 May 2025Jong Ajax 0–0 FC OSSEerste Divisie
- 13 December 2024FC OSS 2–1 Jong AjaxEerste Divisie
- 16 February 2024FC OSS 2–1 Jong AjaxEerste Divisie
- 24 November 2023Jong Ajax 1–0 FC OSSEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: FC OSS and Jong Ajax
FC OSS
GoalsAssists
- M. Hinoke50
- F. Nsingi42
Jong Ajax
GoalsAssists
- D. Pugno52
- E. Ünüvar50
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC OSS carry a model rating of 6.29 against 6.15 for Jong Ajax. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.86 goals for FC OSS and 1.03 for Jong Ajax. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC OSS rate 0.54 in attack and 1.65 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Jong Ajax rate 0.52 and 2.12.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC OSS a 0.4% chance of the title and Jong Ajax 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC OSS the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.86 expected goals for FC OSS against 1.03 for Jong Ajax. FC OSS's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.65 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/2.12 for Jong Ajax.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC OSS at home · Jong Ajax away
League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eerste Divisie matches this season: FC OSS 10, Jong Ajax 10.
Jong Ajax score most often in the 0–15 minute window (6 goals); FC OSS have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
FC OSS
- at PEC Zwolle28 Oct · KNVB Bekerwin 24%
- at Heracles2 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 23%
- vs Waalwijk6 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 39%
- at De Graafschap14 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 30%
- vs Roda20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 39%
Jong Ajax
- vs Vitesse2 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 32%
- at FC Eindhoven6 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 24%
- at FC Volendam20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 14%
- vs Jong AZ23 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 37%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.