Modena
vs
Cesena
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Modena 1–0 Cesena
The model makes it 54% Modena, 26% draw, 20% Cesena — fair odds of 1.85, 3.85 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Modena 1.78, Cesena 0.88.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Modena: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Modena are 3rd on 13 points from 6 games; Cesena are 11th on 7 points from 6 games — Serie B.
- Modena are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Hellas Verona.
- Cesena are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Benevento.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 7 March 2026, ended Modena 0–0 Cesena.
More Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Modena vs Cesena
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Modena at 54% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Modena vs Cesena
Modena
- W3-2Hellas Verona11 October 2026
- W2-1Empoli20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Sudtirol12 September 2026
- L0-1Avellino6 September 2026
- W3-0away to Cremonese28 August 2026
Cesena
- L0-2away to Benevento10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Juve Stabia18 September 2026
- D2-2Cremonese12 September 2026
- D1-1Mantova6 September 2026
- W2-1away to Virtus Entella29 August 2026
What these results say
- Modena scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Modena conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cesena conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cesena failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cesena scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Modena | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 13 |
| 11 | Cesena | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Modena
Chance to finish in the top four · 46% today
Cesena
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 25% today
From our Serie B season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Modena vs Cesena
- 7 March 2026Modena 0–0 CesenaSerie B
- 28 November 2025Cesena 1–0 ModenaSerie B
- 13 May 2025Modena 0–1 CesenaSerie B
- 13 September 2024Cesena 2–2 ModenaSerie B
- 7 February 2022Modena 1–0 CesenaSerie C - Girone B
- 28 September 2021Cesena 1–2 ModenaSerie C - Girone B
Leading scorers: Modena and Cesena
Modena
GoalsAssists
- G. Caso31
- G. Ambrosino22
Cesena
GoalsAssists
- C. Shpendi60
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Modena carry a model rating of 6.64 against 6.42 for Cesena. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.78 goals for Modena and 0.88 for Cesena. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Modena rate 0.77 in attack and 1.17 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cesena rate 0.65 and 1.54.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Modena a 12.5% chance of the title and Cesena 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Modena the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Modena against 0.88 for Cesena. Modena's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.54 for Cesena.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Modena at home · Cesena away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Modena 6, Cesena 6.
Cesena score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Modena have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Modena
- at Vicenza Virtus27 Oct · Serie Bwin 45%
- vs Mantova31 Oct · Serie Bwin 44%
- at Virtus Entella8 Nov · Serie Bwin 37%
- vs Juve Stabia21 Nov · Serie Bwin 48%
Cesena
- vs Empoli27 Oct · Serie Bwin 42%
- at Sudtirol31 Oct · Serie Bwin 23%
- vs Catanzaro7 Nov · Serie Bwin 37%
- at Hellas Verona21 Nov · Serie Bwin 19%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.