Başakşehir
vs
Galatasaray
Süper Lig prediction
The model makes it 45% Başakşehir, 23% draw, 32% Galatasaray — fair odds of 2.22, 4.35 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Başakşehir 1.94, Galatasaray 1.64.
Both teams to score: 69%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Başakşehir
- W2-0Kocaelispor16 August 2026
Galatasaray
- W4-0away to Erzurumspor FK21 August 2026
- D2-2Çorum FK14 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Başakşehir | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 1 | Galatasaray | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Başakşehir vs Galatasaray
- 14 March 2026Galatasaray 3–0 BaşakşehirSüper Lig
- 18 December 2025Galatasaray 1–0 BaşakşehirTürkiye Kupası
- 18 October 2025Başakşehir 1–2 GalatasaraySüper Lig
- 30 May 2025Galatasaray 2–0 BaşakşehirSüper Lig
- 12 January 2025Başakşehir 1–2 GalatasaraySüper Lig
- 8 January 2025Galatasaray 2–2 BaşakşehirTürkiye Kupası
Leading scorers
Başakşehir
No league goals recorded yet.
Galatasaray
- V. Osimhen4 goals1 assists
- R. Sallai1 goals
- Y. Akgün1 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Başakşehir carry a model rating of 6.93 against 7 for Galatasaray. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Başakşehir W; Galatasaray D-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.94 goals for Başakşehir and 1.64 for Galatasaray. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Başakşehir rate 1.09 in attack and 0.92 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Galatasaray rate 1.27 and 0.94.
That points to 69% for over two and a half goals and 69% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Galatasaray, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Başakşehir the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Başakşehir against 1.64 for Galatasaray. Başakşehir's attack/defence rating is 1.09/0.92 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.27/0.94 for Galatasaray.