Göztepe
vs
Gaziantep FK
Süper Lig prediction
The model makes it 48% Göztepe, 20% draw, 32% Gaziantep FK — fair odds of 2.08, 5.00 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (7%).
Expected goals: Göztepe 2.46, Gaziantep FK 2.00.
Both teams to score: 79%. Over 2.5 goals: 82%, under 2.5: 18%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Göztepe
- D3-3away to Samsunspor17 August 2026
Gaziantep FK
- D1-1Alanyaspor15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Göztepe | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Gaziantep FK | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Göztepe vs Gaziantep FK
- 9 May 2026Göztepe 2–1 Gaziantep FKSüper Lig
- 14 December 2025Gaziantep FK 0–1 GöztepeSüper Lig
- 7 April 2025Göztepe 1–1 Gaziantep FKSüper Lig
- 6 February 2025Göztepe 1–0 Gaziantep FKTürkiye Kupası
- 1 November 2024Gaziantep FK 2–1 GöztepeSüper Lig
- 23 April 2022Gaziantep FK 1–1 GöztepeSüper Lig
Leading scorers
Göztepe
- E. Bekiroğlu1 goals
- Alex Matos1 goals
- S. Armstrong1 goals
Gaziantep FK
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Göztepe carry a model rating of 6.53 against 6.55 for Gaziantep FK. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Göztepe D; Gaziantep FK D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.46 goals for Göztepe and 2.00 for Gaziantep FK. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Göztepe rate 0.91 in attack and 1.83 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Gaziantep FK rate 0.78 and 1.43.
That points to 82% for over two and a half goals and 79% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (7%), 2-2 (7%), 1-1 (6%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Göztepe the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.46 expected goals for Göztepe against 2 for Gaziantep FK. Göztepe's attack/defence rating is 0.91/1.83 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.43 for Gaziantep FK.