Erzurumspor FK
vs
Konyaspor
Süper Lig prediction
The model makes it 44% Erzurumspor FK, 26% draw, 30% Konyaspor — fair odds of 2.27, 3.85 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Erzurumspor FK 1.59, Konyaspor 1.26.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Erzurumspor FK
- L0-4Galatasaray21 August 2026
- L0-3away to Amed16 August 2026
Konyaspor
- L2-4away to Fenerbahçe22 August 2026
- L0-1Rizespor15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Erzurumspor FK | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | -7 | 0 |
| 17 | Konyaspor | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Erzurumspor FK vs Konyaspor
- 5 July 2022Erzurumspor FK 0–4 KonyasporFriendlies Clubs
- 25 July 2021Erzurumspor FK 1–2 KonyasporFriendlies Clubs
- 4 April 2021Erzurumspor FK 1–2 KonyasporSüper Lig
- 5 December 2020Konyaspor 2–0 Erzurumspor FKSüper Lig
- 19 January 2019Erzurumspor FK 1–2 KonyasporSüper Lig
- 12 August 2018Konyaspor 3–2 Erzurumspor FKSüper Lig
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Erzurumspor FK carry a model rating of 6.48 against 6.5 for Konyaspor. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Erzurumspor FK L-L; Konyaspor L-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.59 goals for Erzurumspor FK and 1.26 for Konyaspor. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Erzurumspor FK rate 0.60 in attack and 1.29 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Konyaspor rate 0.70 and 1.40.
That points to 54% for over two and a half goals and 58% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Konyaspor, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Erzurumspor FK the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Erzurumspor FK against 1.26 for Konyaspor. Erzurumspor FK's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.4 for Konyaspor.