Fenerbahçe
vs
Beşiktaş
Süper Lig prediction
The model makes it 69% Fenerbahçe, 16% draw, 15% Beşiktaş — fair odds of 1.45, 6.25 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Fenerbahçe 3.01, Beşiktaş 1.41.
Both teams to score: 72%. Over 2.5 goals: 82%, under 2.5: 18%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Fenerbahçe
- W4-2Konyaspor22 August 2026
- L1-2away to Gençlerbirliği S.K.15 August 2026
Beşiktaş
- W1-0Eyüpspor16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Fenerbahçe | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 3 |
| 8 | Beşiktaş | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş
- 5 April 2026Fenerbahçe 1–0 BeşiktaşSüper Lig
- 23 December 2025Fenerbahçe 1–2 BeşiktaşTürkiye Kupası
- 2 November 2025Beşiktaş 2–3 FenerbahçeSüper Lig
- 4 May 2025Fenerbahçe 0–1 BeşiktaşSüper Lig
- 7 December 2024Beşiktaş 1–0 FenerbahçeSüper Lig
- 27 April 2024Fenerbahçe 2–1 BeşiktaşSüper Lig
The two sides
Fenerbahçe carry a model rating of 7 against 6.76 for Beşiktaş. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Fenerbahçe L-W; Beşiktaş W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.01 goals for Fenerbahçe and 1.41 for Beşiktaş. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Fenerbahçe rate 1.36 in attack and 1.04 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Beşiktaş rate 0.97 and 1.17.
That points to 82% for over two and a half goals and 72% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 3-1 (8%), 2-1 (8%), 4-1 (6%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fenerbahçe the highest probability at 69%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.01 expected goals for Fenerbahçe against 1.41 for Beşiktaş. Fenerbahçe's attack/defence rating is 1.36/1.04 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.97/1.17 for Beşiktaş.