Al-Arabi SC
vs
Al-Rayyan SC
Stars League prediction
Our model says: Al-Arabi SC 1–2 Al-Rayyan SC
The model makes it 26% Al-Arabi SC, 26% draw, 48% Al-Rayyan SC — fair odds of 3.85, 3.85 and 2.08. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Al-Arabi SC 1.19, Al-Rayyan SC 1.79.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,335 settled matches.
Edge to Al-Rayyan SC: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 28 October 2026. Al-Arabi SC's rating is built from 29 Qatar Stars League matches and Al-Rayyan SC's from 29, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 307 matches.
Key facts
- Al-Arabi SC are 4th on 12 points from 7 games; Al-Rayyan SC are top on 17 points from 7 games — Stars League.
- Al-Arabi SC have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Al Wakrah.
- Al-Rayyan SC are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 6-1 win away to Al-Sailiya.
- Last 6 meetings: Al-Rayyan SC 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 27 April 2026, ended Al-Rayyan SC 4–0 Al-Arabi SC.
More Qatar Stars League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al-Arabi SC vs Al-Rayyan SC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Rayyan SC at 48% here. Across 5,037 settled matches (as of 28 October 2026), 2,337 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Al-Arabi SC vs Al-Rayyan SC
Al-Arabi SC
Stars League
- L2-3away to Al Wakrah24 October 2026
- W6-0away to Al Shahaniya16 October 2026
- W3-2away to Al Sadd9 October 2026
- D0-0Qatar SC12 September 2026
- W2-0away to Al-Sailiya3 September 2026
Al-Rayyan SC
Stars League
- W6-1away to Al-Sailiya23 October 2026
- D0-0away to Al-Gharafa18 October 2026
- W3-0away to Qatar SC9 October 2026
- W3-0Al Ahli Doha11 September 2026
- D1-1Al-Duhail SC5 September 2026
What these results say
- Al-Arabi SC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al-Rayyan SC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Al-Rayyan SC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Stars League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Al-Arabi SC | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 12 |
| 1 | Al-Rayyan SC | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 3 | +13 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Al-Arabi SC
Chance to finish in the top four · 61% today
Al-Rayyan SC
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 57% today
From our Stars League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Al-Arabi SC vs Al-Rayyan SC
- 27 April 2026Al-Rayyan SC 4–0 Al-Arabi SCStars League
- 28 December 2025Al-Arabi SC 2–2 Al-Rayyan SCStars League
- 27 February 2025Al-Rayyan SC 2–1 Al-Arabi SCStars League
- 26 September 2024Al-Arabi SC 2–1 Al-Rayyan SCStars League
- 7 September 2024Al-Rayyan SC 3–0 Al-Arabi SCQSL Cup
- 1 March 2024Al-Arabi SC 2–3 Al-Rayyan SCStars League
Leading scorers: Al-Arabi SC and Al-Rayyan SC
Al-Arabi SC
GoalsAssists
- Pablo Sarabia61
- O. Tannane33
- M. Olunga32
Al-Rayyan SC
GoalsAssists
- Róger Guedes52
- Gabriel Pereira31
- Ahmed Alaa Eldin30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Al-Arabi SC carry a model rating of 6.49 against 6.71 for Al-Rayyan SC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.19 goals for Al-Arabi SC and 1.79 for Al-Rayyan SC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al-Arabi SC rate 0.67 in attack and 1.37 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al-Rayyan SC rate 0.74 and 1.00.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Al-Arabi SC a 1.2% chance of the title and Al-Rayyan SC 57.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,427 correct results out of 5,040 settled predictions (48%), with 504 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
How the call on Al-Arabi SC v Al-Rayyan SC has moved
First published on 23 Oct at 31% / 27% / 42% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 26% / 26% / 48%: the biggest move is Al-Rayyan SC's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- Al-Arabi SC win26%▼ −5
- Draw26%▼ −1
- Al-Rayyan SC win48%▲ +6
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Rayyan SC the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Al-Arabi SC against 1.79 for Al-Rayyan SC. Al-Arabi SC's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.37 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1 for Al-Rayyan SC.
How the model reaches 48% for Al-Rayyan SC to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 38% for Al-Rayyan SC to win. Then home advantage takes away 1 point, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Al-Arabi SC's ratings add 7 points and Al-Rayyan SC's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 48%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground38%
- Home advantage37%−1
- Both sides at this match's level36%−1
- Al-Arabi SC's ratings43%+7
- Al-Rayyan SC's ratings48%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Al-Arabi SC at home · Al-Rayyan SC away
League matches only, Stars League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Stars League matches this season: Al-Arabi SC 7, Al-Rayyan SC 7.
Al-Rayyan SC score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Al-Arabi SC have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Al-Arabi SC
- vs Al Ahli Doha20 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 47%
- at Al-Gharafa27 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 49%
- at Lusail City3 Dec · Stars Leaguewin 43%
Al-Rayyan SC
- vs Al Sadd20 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 45%
- at Al Shahaniya27 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 67%
- at Al Shamal3 Dec · Stars Leaguewin 57%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.