Premier Division

1. St Patrick's Athletic — 56 points from 31 played (16 won, 8 drawn, 7 lost), 51 scored, 25 conceded, goal difference +26. Form, oldest first: W W L W W.
2. Shamrock Rovers — 56 points from 30 played (16 won, 8 drawn, 6 lost), 46 scored, 29 conceded, goal difference +17. Form, oldest first: D W D D L.
3. Bohemians — 53 points from 30 played (15 won, 8 drawn, 7 lost), 53 scored, 36 conceded, goal difference +17. Form, oldest first: D L W W W.
4. Dundalk — 41 points from 31 played (10 won, 11 drawn, 10 lost), 47 scored, 50 conceded, goal difference -3. Form, oldest first: L L W D L.
5. Derry City — 38 points from 31 played (8 won, 14 drawn, 9 lost), 44 scored, 42 conceded, goal difference +2. Form, oldest first: W L D W D.
6. Galway United — 37 points from 30 played (9 won, 10 drawn, 11 lost), 41 scored, 46 conceded, goal difference -5. Form, oldest first: D W D L W.
7. Shelbourne — 36 points from 30 played (8 won, 12 drawn, 10 lost), 38 scored, 42 conceded, goal difference -4. Form, oldest first: L D D L L.
8. Waterford — 34 points from 31 played (7 won, 13 drawn, 11 lost), 42 scored, 51 conceded, goal difference -9. Form, oldest first: W D W D D.
9. Drogheda United — 34 points from 31 played (8 won, 10 drawn, 13 lost), 37 scored, 49 conceded, goal difference -12. Form, oldest first: D L L W W.
10. Sligo Rovers — 23 points from 31 played (5 won, 8 drawn, 18 lost), 24 scored, 53 conceded, goal difference -29. Form, oldest first: L D L L L.

What moved

Measured against 2026-09-14, the last update whose numbers changed — not against the last time the page was built, because an unchanged projection is carried forward rather than restamped. 9 clubs moved in all; the rest are in the projection below.

• St Patrick's Athletic — chance of finishing top up 17.6, to 25.5%.
• Shamrock Rovers — chance of finishing top down 13.1, to 61%.
• Galway United — bottom-three risk down 12.7, to 16.5%.
• Shelbourne — bottom-three risk up 11.8, to 23.7%.
• Drogheda United — bottom-three risk down 9.6, to 79.9%.

Season projection

Every one of the 27 matches this phase has left, played out 10,000 times by the same model that makes our match predictions — but rating each side on its whole season rather than its last six games, since one hot run should not decide a title race. The figures are final positions, not qualification or relegation: those depend on each country's rules and playoffs. A statistical estimate, not betting advice. These figures cover the regular season only. The regular season is not the end of the competition: Final follow it, and no projection here covers them. Movement is measured against 2026-09-14, the last update whose numbers changed.

1. Shamrock Rovers — projected to finish on 66.5 points, from 56 after 30 played. Finishes top of the regular season 61% (down 13.1), finishes top four 100%, bottom three 0%.
2. St Patrick's Athletic — projected to finish on 63.7 points, from 56 after 31 played. Finishes top of the regular season 25.5% (up 17.6), finishes top four 100%, bottom three 0%.
3. Bohemians — projected to finish on 62.1 points, from 53 after 30 played. Finishes top of the regular season 13.5% (down 4.5), finishes top four 100%, bottom three 0%.
4. Dundalk — projected to finish on 48 points, from 41 after 31 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top four 50.9%, bottom three 1.6%.
5. Derry City — projected to finish on 45.7 points, from 38 after 31 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top four 26.3%, bottom three 5.8%.
6. Galway United — projected to finish on 44.8 points, from 37 after 30 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top four 13.4%, bottom three 16.5%.
7. Shelbourne — projected to finish on 43.6 points, from 36 after 30 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top four 8.6%, bottom three 23.7%.
8. Waterford — projected to finish on 40.1 points, from 34 after 31 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top four 0.5%, bottom three 72.5%.
9. Drogheda United — projected to finish on 39.7 points, from 34 after 31 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top four 0.3%, bottom three 79.9%.
10. Sligo Rovers — projected to finish on 28.6 points, from 23 after 31 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top four 0%, bottom three 100%.

Top scorers

1. T. Lonergan (Waterford) — 14 goals, 3 assists.
2. C. Whelan (Bohemians) — 12 goals, 5 assists.
3. R. Edmondson (St Patrick's Athletic) — 10 goals, 1 assist.
4. M. Duffy (Derry City) — 10 goals, 5 assists.
5. D. Horgan (Dundalk) — 10 goals, 10 assists.
6. R. Tierney (Bohemians) — 9 goals, 3 assists.
7. P. Amond (Waterford) — 9 goals, 1 assist.
8. A. Keena (St Patrick's Athletic) — 9 goals, 4 assists.
9. K. Twardek (Galway United) — 8 goals, 6 assists.
10. M. Doyle (Drogheda United) — 8 goals.
11. G. Arubi (Dundalk) — 7 goals, 3 assists.
12. G. Burke (Shamrock Rovers) — 7 goals, 1 assist.
13. H. Wood (Shelbourne) — 7 goals, 5 assists.
14. J. Clarke (Derry City) — 6 goals, 3 assists.
15. K. Leavy (St Patrick's Athletic) — 6 goals, 3 assists.
16. C. Kavanagh (Sligo Rovers) — 6 goals, 2 assists.
17. J. Martin (Shelbourne) — 6 goals, 2 assists.
18. M. Noonan (Shamrock Rovers) — 6 goals.
19. D. Kelly (Shelbourne) — 6 goals.
20. J. McGovern (Shamrock Rovers) — 5 goals, 5 assists.