Regular Season - 12 · 28 November 2026, 16:15 UTC

Angers vs Lens Ligue 1 prediction

Stade Raymond-Kopa, Angers

Our model says: Angers 1–2 Lens

The model makes it 21% Angers, 24% draw, 55% Lens — fair odds of 4.76, 4.17 and 1.82.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: Angers 1.04, Lens 2.01.

Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,153 settled matches.

One-sided: Lens are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published 14 November 2026 · updated 15 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Angers's rating is built from 44 Ligue 1 (France) matches and Lens's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 705 matches.

Key facts

Angers are 16th on 8 points from 10 games; Lens are 11th on 13 points from 10 games — Ligue 1.
Angers have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Nice.
Lens have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Marseille.
Last 6 meetings: Lens 6 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 20 March 2026, ended Lens 5–1 Angers.

More Ligue 1 (France) predictions

All Ligue 1 (France) predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Angers vs Lens

56%

Both teams to score

59%

Over 2.5 goals

41%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Angers win Draw Lens win

1–110%
1–210%
0–210%
0–19%
1–37%
0–36%
0–05%

Scores read Angers first; the other scorelines share the remaining 43%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Lens at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Angers vs Lens

Angers

Ligue 1

L0-2Nice8 November 2026
L0-2away to Lyon1 November 2026
D0-0Lorient25 October 2026
L2-5Marseille18 October 2026
L1-5away to Stade Brestois 2910 October 2026

Lens

Ligue 1

L1-2Marseille8 November 2026
L0-1away to Lille30 October 2026
W2-1Paris FC24 October 2026
W3-1away to Estac Troyes17 October 2026
W2-1Lyon9 October 2026

What these results say

Angers did not win any of these 5 matches.
Angers conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Lens conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Lens scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
4 of these 5 matches for Lens had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 1 table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
16	Angers	10	2	2	6	9	19	-10	8
11	Lens	10	4	1	5	17	15	+2	13

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Angers

Chance to finish in the bottom two · 56% today

Win 44%

Draw 55%

Defeat 61%

Lens

Chance to finish in the top three · 7% today

Win 9%

Draw 5%

Defeat 5%

From our Ligue 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Angers vs Lens

Angers and Lens have met 6 times in the records we hold, Lens has won 6 of them to Angers's 0.

The record

Lens won the last one 5–1 on 20 Mar 2026.

Club	W	D	L	GF	GA
Angers	0	0	6	3	14
Lens	6	0	0	14	3

Between them these 6 meetings produced 17 goals, an average of 2.83 a game.

Every meeting

Every recorded meeting, newest first.

20 Mar 2026
Ligue 1Lens 5–1 Angers
30 Nov 2025
Ligue 1Angers 1–2 Lens
26 Jan 2025
Ligue 1Lens 1–0 Angers
18 Aug 2024
Ligue 1Angers 0–1 Lens
18 Mar 2023
Ligue 1Lens 3–0 Angers
5 Nov 2022
Ligue 1Angers 1–2 Lens

How the model rates them now

On the current ratings, Lens' attack rates 85% above Angers', and Lens concede 22% fewer than Angers. That gives Lens the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.

Club	Attack	Defence
Angers	0.62	1.27
Lens	1.15	0.99

More head-to-heads on this week’s board →

Leading scorers: Angers and Lens

Angers

No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.

Lens

GoalsAssists

F. Thauvin57

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Angers a 0% chance of the title and Lens 0.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Angers Lens

0.62 Attack strength (vs league average) 1.15

1.27 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 0.99

1.04 Model expected goals (this match) 2.01

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Lens the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Angers against 2.01 for Lens. Angers's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.27 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.15/0.99 for Lens.

Angers carry a model rating of 6.5 against 6.93 for Lens.

How the model reaches 55% for Lens to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Lens to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, Angers's ratings add 11 points and Lens's ratings add 13 points, which lands on the published 55%.

Two average sides, neutral ground37%
Home advantage31%−6
Angers's ratings42%+11
Lens's ratings55%+13

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

AngersModelLens

Over 1.5 goals

80%

8 of 10 games

81%

model, this match

80%

8 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

40%

4 of 10 games

59%

model, this match

80%

8 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

30%

3 of 10 games

36%

model, this match

30%

3 of 10 games

Both teams score

40%

4 of 10 games

56%

model, this match

80%

8 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

AngersLens

10Matches10

2W 2D 6LRecord4W 1D 5L

9 0.9 per gameGoals scored17 1.7 per game

19 1.9 per gameGoals conceded15 1.5 per game

3 of 10Clean sheets0 of 10

5 of 10Failed to score2 of 10

1 of 1Penalties scored3 of 3

17 1.7 per gameYellow cards20 2.0 per game

1Red cards2

4-2-3-1 6×Usual shape3-4-2-1 10×

Angers at home · Lens away

6Played5

1W 1D 4LRecord1W 1D 3L

5–11Goals for – against7–8

2 of 6Clean sheets0 of 5

League matches only, Ligue 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

AngersLens

Angers are 16th after 10 Ligue 1 matches (between 6th and 15th so far); Lens are 11th after 10 (between 2nd and 11th). How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Ligue 1 matches this season: Angers 10, Lens 10.

Angers scored 212221

Lens conceded 213324

Lens scored 113624

Angers conceded 426204

Lens score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Angers have let in 2 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Angers

at Monaco5 Dec · Ligue 1win 13%
vs Strasbourg12 Dec · Ligue 1win 26%
at Toulouse2 Jan · Ligue 1win 17%
vs Paris Saint Germain16 Jan · Ligue 1win 10%

Lens

vs Le Havre5 Dec · Ligue 1win 65%
vs Bodo/Glimt9 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 45%
at Nice12 Dec · Ligue 1win 40%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.