The model on 23 October: 40 out of 93
Of the 93 matches our model predicted before kick-off on Friday 23 October 2026, it called the result of 40 (43%). It named the exact scoreline 4 times. Across all 4,537 matches it has predicted since 19 July, the rate is 48%.
What stood out
At 43% the day ran 5 points below the model's running rate of 48%. The result it least expected was Vasteras SK FK 1-2 Halmstad: it had given a win for Halmstad 16%. Its best competition of the day was Pro League (Saudi-Arabia) (4 of 4), its weakest Persian Gulf Pro League (Iran) (0 of 3).
By competition
- Eerste Divisie: 2 of 9
- Ligue 2: 3 of 5
- Premier Division: 3 of 5
- Ligue 1 (Tunisia): 2 of 4
- Pro League: 4 of 4
- Super Liga: 1 of 4
- Challenge League: 1 of 3
- Persian Gulf Pro League: 0 of 3
- 41 other competitions: 24 of 56
The most confident misses
The predictions it was surest about and got wrong:
- Flamengo 0-0 Estudiantes La Plata: the model had Flamengo at 66%.
- VfB Stuttgart 2-3 Borussia Mönchengladbach: the model had VfB Stuttgart at 61%.
- Vasteras SK FK 1-2 Halmstad: the model had Vasteras SK FK at 59%.
Exact scorelines
- Derry City 2-1 Dundalk: the exact score it named, with Derry City at 51%.
- UTC Cajamarca 1-2 FBC Melgar: the exact score it named, with FBC Melgar at 51%.
- Granada CF 2-1 Valladolid: the exact score it named, with Granada CF at 47%.
How this is counted
A result counts as called when the outcome the model rated most likely (home win, draw or away win) is the one that happened. Every prediction here was published and logged before kick-off, and the log is public: the track record breaks it down by confidence, by competition and by club. How the probabilities are produced, including where the model is known to be wrong, is in the methodology.
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