The model on 22 October: 24 out of 48
Of the 48 matches our model predicted before kick-off on Thursday 22 October 2026, it called the result of 24 (50%). It named the exact scoreline 2 times. Across all 4,444 matches it has predicted since 19 July, the rate is 48%.
What stood out
At 50% the day was in line with the model's running rate. The result it least expected was Pafos 1-1 Riga: it had given a draw 15%. Its best competition of the day was UEFA Europa Conference League (10 of 18), its weakest Liga MX (Mexico) (2 of 5).
By competition
- UEFA Europa Conference League: 10 of 18
- UEFA Europa League: 8 of 18
- Liga MX: 2 of 5
- Pro League: 1 of 2
- Stars League: 1 of 2
- CONMEBOL Libertadores: 0 of 1
- Persian Gulf Pro League: 1 of 1
- Primera A: 1 of 1
The most confident misses
The predictions it was surest about and got wrong:
- Pafos 1-1 Riga: the model had Pafos at 78%.
- Aarhus 1-1 Egnatia Rrogozhinë: the model had Aarhus at 70%.
- Juventus 2-2 Rennes: the model had Juventus at 59%.
Exact scorelines
- Trabzonspor 2-0 Heart of Midlothian: the exact score it named, with Trabzonspor at 71%.
- Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0 Sparta Praha: the exact score it named, with Olympiakos Piraeus at 42%.
How this is counted
A result counts as called when the outcome the model rated most likely (home win, draw or away win) is the one that happened. Every prediction here was published and logged before kick-off, and the log is public: the track record breaks it down by confidence, by competition and by club. How the probabilities are produced, including where the model is known to be wrong, is in the methodology.
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This summary is posted each evening on our Telegram channel, t.me/fulltimestats_com, with a link back to the full recap.