The model on 18 October: 91 out of 180
Of the 180 matches our model predicted before kick-off on Sunday 18 October 2026, it called the result of 91 (51%). It named the exact scoreline 20 times. Across all 4,273 matches it has predicted since 19 July, the rate is 48%.
What stood out
At 51% the day ran 3 points above the model's running rate of 48%. The result it least expected was Twente 1-2 Utrecht: it had given a win for Utrecht 18%. Its best competition of the day was La Liga (Spain) (4 of 4), its weakest Liga Profesional Argentina (0 of 3).
By competition
- Major League Soccer: 2 of 8
- Allsvenskan: 2 of 5
- Eliteserien: 2 of 5
- Eredivisie: 1 of 5
- K League 1: 2 of 5
- Ligue 1 (France): 3 of 5
- Segunda División: 4 of 5
- Super League 1: 4 of 5
- 52 other competitions: 71 of 137
The most confident misses
The predictions it was surest about and got wrong:
- Toluca 1-1 Atletico San Luis: the model had Toluca at 62%.
- Karpaty 2-2 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi: the model had Karpaty at 62%.
- Twente 1-2 Utrecht: the model had Twente at 60%.
Exact scorelines
- Universitatea Craiova 2-0 Farul Constanta: the exact score it named, with Universitatea Craiova at 66%.
- Kheybar Khorramabad 2-1 Esteghlal Khuzestan: the exact score it named, with Kheybar Khorramabad at 57%.
- KuPS 2-0 VPS: the exact score it named, with KuPS at 56%.
How this is counted
A result counts as called when the outcome the model rated most likely (home win, draw or away win) is the one that happened. Every prediction here was published and logged before kick-off, and the log is public: the track record breaks it down by confidence, by competition and by club. How the probabilities are produced, including where the model is known to be wrong, is in the methodology.
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This summary is posted each evening on our Telegram channel, t.me/fulltimestats_com, with a link back to the full recap.