The model on 17 October: 112 out of 225
Of the 225 matches our model predicted before kick-off on Saturday 17 October 2026, it called the result of 112 (50%). It named the exact scoreline 19 times. Across all 4,093 matches it has predicted since 19 July, the rate is 48%.
What stood out
At 50% the day was in line with the model's running rate. The result it least expected was Venezia 1-0 Napoli: it had given a win for Venezia 12%. Its best competition of the day was Süper Lig (Turkey) (4 of 4), its weakest Super Liga (Slovakia) (0 of 3).
By competition
- League Two: 7 of 12
- Championship (England): 3 of 11
- League One: 7 of 11
- Ligue 3: 3 of 8
- Major League Soccer: 3 of 7
- 3. Liga: 2 of 6
- Bundesliga (Germany): 2 of 6
- Liga Profesional Argentina: 5 of 6
- 58 other competitions: 80 of 158
The most confident misses
The predictions it was surest about and got wrong:
- ADO Den Haag 2-1 PSV Eindhoven: the model had PSV Eindhoven at 70%.
- Slavia Praha 0-0 Hradec Králové: the model had Slavia Praha at 69%.
- Venezia 1-0 Napoli: the model had Napoli at 68%.
Exact scorelines
- AS Roma 2-0 Genoa: the exact score it named, with AS Roma at 68%.
- Maccabi Petah Tikva 1-2 Maccabi Haifa: the exact score it named, with Maccabi Haifa at 61%.
- Hapoel Tel Aviv 1-0 Ironi Tiberias: the exact score it named, with Hapoel Tel Aviv at 56%.
How this is counted
A result counts as called when the outcome the model rated most likely (home win, draw or away win) is the one that happened. Every prediction here was published and logged before kick-off, and the log is public: the track record breaks it down by confidence, by competition and by club. How the probabilities are produced, including where the model is known to be wrong, is in the methodology.
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This summary is posted each evening on our Telegram channel, t.me/fulltimestats_com, with a link back to the full recap.