The model on 16 October: 32 out of 66
Of the 66 matches our model predicted before kick-off on Friday 16 October 2026, it called the result of 32 (48%). It named the exact scoreline 8 times. Across all 3,868 matches it has predicted since 19 July, the rate is 48%.
What stood out
At 48% the day was in line with the model's running rate. The result it least expected was St Patrick's Athletic 1-2 Shelbourne: it had given a win for Shelbourne 20%. Its best competition of the day was Schweizer Cup (Switzerland) (3 of 3), its weakest Ligue 2 (France) (1 of 5).
By competition
- Ligue 2: 1 of 5
- Eerste Divisie: 2 of 4
- Premier Division: 1 of 4
- 1. Division: 1 of 3
- Schweizer Cup: 3 of 3
- 2. Bundesliga: 0 of 2
- Ekstraklasa: 0 of 2
- I Liga: 2 of 2
- 35 other competitions: 22 of 41
The most confident misses
The predictions it was surest about and got wrong:
- Ponte Preta 1-1 Atletico Goianiense: the model had Atletico Goianiense at 65%.
- Oțelul 1-1 Csikszereda: the model had Oțelul at 56%.
- VVV Venlo 4-4 Jong AZ: the model had VVV Venlo at 54%.
Exact scorelines
- Çorum FK 2-1 Rizespor: the exact score it named, with Çorum FK at 56%.
- Sumqayıt 2-1 Araz: the exact score it named, with Sumqayıt at 56%.
- Bohemians 2-1 Waterford: the exact score it named, with Bohemians at 51%.
How this is counted
A result counts as called when the outcome the model rated most likely (home win, draw or away win) is the one that happened. Every prediction here was published and logged before kick-off, and the log is public: the track record breaks it down by confidence, by competition and by club. How the probabilities are produced, including where the model is known to be wrong, is in the methodology.
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