The model on 6 October: 8 out of 16
Of the 16 matches our model predicted before kick-off on Tuesday 6 October 2026, it called the result of 8 (50%). It named the exact scoreline 2 times. Across all 3,075 matches it has predicted since 19 July, the rate is 47%.
By competition
- UEFA Nations League: 6 of 10
- Division Profesional - Clausura: 0 of 2
- Serie B: 2 of 2
- Liga Profesional Argentina: 0 of 1
- Primera A: 0 of 1
The most confident misses
The predictions it was surest about and got wrong:
- Sportivo Ameliano 1-2 Rubio NU: the model had Sportivo Ameliano at 50%.
- Estonia 0-0 Iceland: the model had Iceland at 41%.
- Luxembourg 0-2 Bulgaria: the model had Luxembourg at 39%.
Exact scorelines
- Sport Recife 2-1 São Bernardo: the exact score it named, with Sport Recife at 44%.
- Goias 2-1 Athletic Club: the exact score it named, with Goias at 38%.
How this is counted
A result counts as called when the outcome the model rated most likely (home win, draw or away win) is the one that happened. Every prediction here was published and logged before kick-off, and the log is public: the track record breaks it down by confidence, by competition and by club. How the probabilities are produced, including where the model is known to be wrong, is in the methodology.
Every evening on Telegram
This summary is posted each evening on our Telegram channel, t.me/fulltimestats_com, with a link back to the full recap.