The model on 5 October: 8 out of 13
Of the 13 matches our model predicted before kick-off on Monday 5 October 2026, it called the result of 8 (62%). Across all 3,056 matches it has predicted since 19 July, the rate is 47%.
By competition
- UEFA Nations League: 4 of 8
- Liga Profesional Argentina: 1 of 2
- Division Profesional - Clausura: 1 of 1
- Primera A: 1 of 1
- Segunda División: 1 of 1
The most confident misses
The predictions it was surest about and got wrong:
- Montenegro 0-0 Armenia: the model had Montenegro at 46%.
- Bosnia & Herzegovina 1-0 Poland: the model had Poland at 42%.
- Deportivo Riestra 1-1 Central Cordoba de Santiago: the model had Deportivo Riestra at 39%.
The surest calls that landed
- Sportivo Trinidense 3-2 Sportivo Luqueno: Sportivo Trinidense at 57%.
- Italy 3-1 Türkiye: Italy at 47%.
- Cyprus 2-1 Latvia: Cyprus at 42%.
How this is counted
A result counts as called when the outcome the model rated most likely (home win, draw or away win) is the one that happened. Every prediction here was published and logged before kick-off, and the log is public: the track record breaks it down by confidence, by competition and by club. How the probabilities are produced, including where the model is known to be wrong, is in the methodology.
Every evening on Telegram
This summary is posted each evening on our Telegram channel, t.me/fulltimestats_com, with a link back to the full recap.