The model on 3 October: 39 out of 57
Of the 57 matches our model predicted before kick-off on Saturday 3 October 2026, it called the result of 39 (68%). It named the exact scoreline 9 times. Across all 3,018 matches it has predicted since 19 July, the rate is 47%.
By competition
- League Two: 5 of 8
- Ligue 3: 8 of 8
- UEFA Nations League: 7 of 8
- Eerste Divisie: 2 of 6
- Liga Profesional Argentina: 2 of 5
- Botola Pro: 2 of 4
- Serie B: 4 of 4
- Championship: 2 of 3
- 5 other competitions: 7 of 11
The most confident misses
The predictions it was surest about and got wrong:
- Club Guarani 1-1 Club Sp. San Lorenzo: the model had Club Guarani at 60%.
- Livingston 1-2 Ayr Utd: the model had Livingston at 55%.
- Deportes Tolima 0-0 Chico: the model had Deportes Tolima at 54%.
Exact scorelines
- Cuiaba 2-0 Ponte Preta: the exact score it named, with Cuiaba at 66%.
- Rouen 2-0 Bourg-en-bresse 01: the exact score it named, with Rouen at 59%.
- Atletico Goianiense 2-0 America Mineiro: the exact score it named, with Atletico Goianiense at 57%.
How this is counted
A result counts as called when the outcome the model rated most likely (home win, draw or away win) is the one that happened. Every prediction here was published and logged before kick-off, and the log is public: the track record breaks it down by confidence, by competition and by club. How the probabilities are produced, including where the model is known to be wrong, is in the methodology.
Every evening on Telegram
This summary is posted each evening on our Telegram channel, t.me/fulltimestats_com, with a link back to the full recap.