The model on 1 October: 3 out of 9
Of the 9 matches our model predicted before kick-off on Thursday 1 October 2026, it called the result of 3 (33%). It named the exact scoreline once. Across all 2,943 matches it has predicted since 19 July, the rate is 47%.
By competition
- UEFA Nations League: 2 of 8
- Primera A: 1 of 1
The most confident misses
The predictions it was surest about and got wrong:
- Azerbaijan 0-0 Liechtenstein: the model had Azerbaijan at 56%.
- Wales 2-1 Norway: the model had Norway at 41%.
- Rep. Of Ireland 2-2 Austria: the model had Rep. Of Ireland at 41%.
Exact scorelines
- Germany 2-0 Serbia: the exact score it named, with Germany at 59%.
How this is counted
A result counts as called when the outcome the model rated most likely (home win, draw or away win) is the one that happened. Every prediction here was published and logged before kick-off, and the log is public: the track record breaks it down by confidence, by competition and by club. How the probabilities are produced, including where the model is known to be wrong, is in the methodology.
Every evening on Telegram
This summary is posted each evening on our Telegram channel, t.me/fulltimestats_com, with a link back to the full recap.