The model on 29 September: 7 out of 11
Of the 11 matches our model predicted before kick-off on Tuesday 29 September 2026, it called the result of 7 (64%). It named the exact scoreline once. Across all 2,932 matches it has predicted since 19 July, the rate is 47%.
By competition
- UEFA Nations League: 6 of 10
- Primera A: 1 of 1
The most confident misses
The predictions it was surest about and got wrong:
- Bulgaria 0-0 Estonia: the model had Bulgaria at 49%.
- Moldova 1-1 Faroe Islands: the model had Faroe Islands at 44%.
- Luxembourg 0-3 Iceland: the model had Luxembourg at 43%.
Exact scorelines
- Czechia 0-2 England: the exact score it named, with England at 60%.
How this is counted
A result counts as called when the outcome the model rated most likely (home win, draw or away win) is the one that happened. Every prediction here was published and logged before kick-off, and the log is public: the track record breaks it down by confidence, by competition and by club. How the probabilities are produced, including where the model is known to be wrong, is in the methodology.
Every evening on Telegram
This summary is posted each evening on our Telegram channel, t.me/fulltimestats_com, with a link back to the full recap.