The model on 25 September: 5 out of 11
Of the 11 matches our model predicted before kick-off on Friday 25 September 2026, it called the result of 5 (45%). It named the exact scoreline once. Across all 2,833 matches it has predicted since 19 July, the rate is 47%.
By competition
- UEFA Nations League: 4 of 8
- Premier Division: 0 of 1
- Primera A: 0 of 1
- Segunda División: 1 of 1
The most confident misses
The predictions it was surest about and got wrong:
- Atletico Nacional 1-1 Millonarios: the model had Atletico Nacional at 48%.
- Hungary 0-1 Ukraine: the model had Hungary at 41%.
- Poland 0-0 Bosnia & Herzegovina: the model had Poland at 41%.
Exact scorelines
- Montenegro 2-1 Cyprus: the exact score it named, with Montenegro at 46%.
How this is counted
A result counts as called when the outcome the model rated most likely (home win, draw or away win) is the one that happened. Every prediction here was published and logged before kick-off, and the log is public: the track record breaks it down by confidence, by competition and by club. How the probabilities are produced, including where the model is known to be wrong, is in the methodology.